Nikola Mikovic

Opinion | China-Russia relations might have a few limits after all

While both countries continue to cooperate on security matters, Beijing is careful to avoid crossing unofficial Western ‘red lines’

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Nikola Mikovic

Published: 5:30am, 13 Sep 2024Updated: 6:51am, 13 Sep 2024

As Russia and China kick off the joint Ocean-2024 military drills in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk, questions arise about their ability to counter perceived US dominance in the global arena. While military collaboration between Moscow and Beijing signals a united front against the West, doubts remain about whether their “no limits” partnership can lead to significant geopolitical changes, or if it merely serves as a high-profile display.

Over the past two and a half years, since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian and Chinese militaries have conducted several joint military exercises. In July, China’s and Russia’s naval forces held a drill at a military port in southern China’s Guangdong province, “jointly addressing maritime security threats”.

That, however, did not help Moscow protect its Black Sea Fleet from frequent Ukrainian attacks. The fleet’s primary base was the city of Sevastopol in Crimea but after Ukraine sank a considerable number of Russian warships, the Kremlin had to move many of the high-value Russian naval assets east to Novorossiysk.

Similarly, the Vostok 2022 exercises – in which a total of 13 countries, including China, took part – failed to help Russia maintain control over significant parts of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region that had been occupied in the early days of the war. As Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia’s general staff, was preoccupied with supervising the large-scale drill in the Russian Far East, Ukraine took advantage of the situation to reclaim substantial portions of Kharkiv.

The coming weeks will reveal whether Kyiv will implement the same tactics and launch another offensive – potentially aiming to capture parts of Russia’s Belgorod or Bryansk regions – while the Russian military is busy conducting drills alongside Chinese forces in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk.

In the past, Russia held military exercises with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, primarily through the US-dominated alliance’s Partnership for Peace programme. However, following the emergence of the Ukraine crisis in 2014, Nato halted all forms of military cooperation with Moscow, while the Kremlin sought to expand military ties with Beijing.