Opinion | Will China’s patience run out as security threats and provocations pile up?

Beijing last week officially confirmed its joint naval exercise with Russia near Zhanjiang, Guangdong province, nearly a week after Moscow announced the patrol. The exercise, which includes anti-submarine and air defence drills as well as search and rescue measures at sea, is the fourth of its kind.

It took place under a bilateral agreement to deepen the two countries’ strategic partnership and address “maritime security threats”. It has also raised anxiety among some countries in the region, particularly in the Philippines and Taiwan, after the PLA Navy aircraft carrier Shandong was spotted en route to its first far-sea exercise.

Japan defined the repeated joint sorties by China and Russia near Japan as “clearly intended as a demonstration of force” and “a grave concern from the perspective of national security” in its latest defence white paper. China has attacked the report, saying it “interferes in China’s internal affairs brutally”.

Meanwhile, South Korea has expressed concerns over Russia’s growing closeness with North Korea. Passing near Jeju Island, Beijing and Moscow’s joint patrol appears to traverse the same waters where Seoul, Tokyo and Washington conducted their “Freedom Edge” joint drill last month.

China has dismissed any suggestion it plays a role in rising tensions in the region. At the same time, it is difficult to deny that the latest China-Russia joint exercise comes amid several events Beijing views as provocations.

For example, the US-led 29-nation Rimpac exercises began last month with the goal of countering a large and protected adversary in open waters. While it was never explicitly named, China has not been invited to Rimpac since 2018 and clearly seems to be the intended target.