Conrad Bongard Hamilton

Opinion | Don’t expect big changes in France’s China policy, at least not yet

With a divided parliament and economic interests at stake, Paris is more likely to keep promoting engagement with Beijing for the time being

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron attend a ceremony on May 7 in southwestern France during a state visit commemorating the 60th anniversary of bilateral ties. While France is engaged in de-risking, relations with China are likely to stay the course until the end of Macron’s term. Photo: AFP

Conrad Bongard Hamilton

Published: 5:30am, 19 Jul 2024Updated: 7:06am, 19 Jul 2024

The France-China relationship, it is safe to say, has seen a number of striking plot twists. During the 19th century, France colonised parts of China, including a part of Shanghai. Later, in 1964, with the French empire in decline, it became the first major Western power to recognise mainland China’s communist government.

French President Emmanuel Macron has sought to emulate this approach, promoting continued engagement with China, even as the country has become arguably less autonomous and more dependent on the US, than it was during the post-war period. With the shock results of the July 7 election, is the status quo likely to shift again?

The quick answer is: probably not. Macron’s decision to try to maintain strong economic ties with China is, in addition to a bid for strategic autonomy, a reflection of business interests. China imports hundreds of millions of dollars of jewellery from France, as well as other luxury goods such as wine and cognac.

There is a high level of collaboration in the aeronautics sector, in particular with Airbus having a major foothold in the Chinese market. The same can be said of the nuclear energy sector, in which France has long played a role in furnishing China with technical know-how.

No matter who controls the French legislature, these interests will not go away overnight. Nor, for that matter, will Macron, who’s poised to remain president until 2027. As the pre-eminent authority in deciding the nation’s foreign policy, he can be expected to stay the course when it comes to cooperating with China.

The legislature can exert some influence over foreign affairs. But even here, there’s a couple of reasons to think this won’t have much of an effect. First, the French legislature is thoroughly divided. While the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, has the largest plurality of seats, its 188 legislators still puts it far from the 289 needed for a majority, and not far ahead of the centrist Ensemble’s 161 seats and third-place National Rally’s 142.

Leftist lawmaker Jean-Luc Melenchon celebrates his coalition’s victory with a speech in Paris, France after the second round of the French legislative elections on July 7. Photo: EPA-EFE