![Wang Xiangwei](https://img.i-scmp.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=contain,width=772,format=auto/sites/default/files/images/author/2018/08/31/copy_of_xw-portraita.jpg)
Until China changes its growth model, don’t expect any ‘revenge spending’
- As China prioritises exports and investments, the country’s stimulus measures have failed to adequately boost meek domestic consumption levels
- Unless leaders are willing to adopt radical solutions to boost confidence, consumers will continue to keep their wallets closed
All those expectations have fallen flat. As one viral joke on China’s social media goes, “[Officials] thought we would seek ‘revenge’ but underestimated our compassion. We have already let go of grudges”.
The sarcastic joke serves as a vivid illustration of one of the greatest challenges for China’s leadership: how to get the country’s reluctant consumers to spend.
Their argument is that China should encourage its own citizens to spend more to absorb its rising production capacity. Indeed, in 2022, China accounted for 31 per cent of global manufacturing value added and 27 per cent of global real exports, but only 13 per cent of global consumption, according to a report co-authored by Larry Hu, head of China Economics at Macquarie Group. He expected the gap to continue to widen and the risk of trade tensions to increase over time.
Ironically, China’s leadership has long recognised the importance of boosting domestic consumption, at least publicly. Over the past two decades, successive leaders have talked up the country’s supersize market with a booming middle class estimated at 400 million people and 140 million households, and rising. But, during the same period, consumption’s share of China’s gross domestic product stalled at just above 50 per cent, compared to more than 70 per cent in major economies.
Much has been written about why China’s consumers are reluctant to spend. The main reasons include their propensity to save and lack of adequate social welfare and healthcare.
This has much to do with the party’s ideology and its management philosophy.
The concept of consumption or welfare did not enter the equation, particularly at a time when most people barely had enough to fill their stomachs.
This line of thinking has reflected a deep-rooted distrust of individuals and a firm belief that the greater good overrides the needs of those individuals.
A far bigger headache is the falling confidence of China’s 400-million-strong middle class. Their wealth has suffered a severe beating due to the sharp falls in the stock market and real estate over the past few years.
Unless China’s leaders undertake a fundamental rethink of its growth model and plan radical moves to spur consumption, consumers will most likely choose to mind their wallets rather than pulling them out for some “revenge spending”.
Wang Xiangwei is a former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. He now teaches journalism at Baptist University
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