Terry Su

Opinion | Lack of a coherent China policy is backing US into a corner

The US is pressing China to end its support for Russia, but these efforts are futile as Beijing believes it would be next if and when Moscow is forced to back down

It is time for Washington policymakers to be realistic and start bargaining with China on a fairer basis if they want to achieve any of their aims

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Terry Su

Published: 8:30pm, 14 May 2024

Fresh from his whistle-stop tour of Europe, Chinese President Xi Jinping is hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, the latter’s first trip abroad since his re-election in March. Considering that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken went to Beijing last month to warn of the potentially serious consequences of China’s continued closeness with Russia amid the war in Ukraine, the Xi-Putin meeting illustrates Washington’s dilemma that makes the need for a coherent China strategy increasingly pressing.

The US’ concern over Ukraine has been deepening of late, so much so that Congressional Republicans and Democrats managed to put aside their disagreements long enough to pass a US$95 billion aid package last month, US$60 billion of which was earmarked for Ukraine.

However, Washington is well aware that the chances of Ukraine’s resistance succeeding remain small as long as China’s trade with Russia continues at current levels. Chinese firms are filling the void left by Western companies which vacated Russia, flooding the country’s households and factories with goods made in China. Among them are chips and machine tools that can be used for military purposes.

The US therefore has good reason to see China as a pivotal force behind Russia’s resilience. “We see China sharing machine tools, semiconductors, [and] other dual-use items that have helped Russia rebuild its defence industrial base that sanctions and export controls had done so much to degrade,” Blinken said ahead of his trip to China, adding that “China cannot have it both ways”.

In early April, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, the National Security Council’s former Asia chief, observed that Russia has been able to “almost completely” re-tool and that China has helped it do so. He said his team had “told China directly if this continues, it will have an impact on the US-China relationship” and that “we will not sit by and say everything is fine”.

02:24

China’s Xi urges US to be a partner, not rival, for ‘mutual success’ in meeting with Blinken

Unfortunately for Washington, any substantive change in China’s position with regard to Russia is out of the question. Beijing believes that if or when Russia is forced to back down, it will be China’s turn next.