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US-China relations
OpinionChina Opinion
Daniel Wagner
Daniel Wagner

Opinion | Contain China? Washington, that ship has sailed

  • Unlike the Soviet Union in the 1980s, China has a highly diversified economy and capable defences making it unlikely to collapse or be contained
  • Despite what some pundits in Washington may believe, much of the world would not readily join the US in a war or containment strategy against China

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A visitor holds up three Chinese flags as people gather for the flag-raising ceremony at Tiananmen Square to mark National Day in Beijing on October 1, 2023. Photo: Bloomberg
Daniel Wagner
Some prominent voices in Washington have been arguing that the United States should adopt a cold-war-style approach to contain China. They frame the Biden administration’s policy of attempting to find a middle ground through detente as naive and believe that only a hardline approach, similar to former US president Ronald Reagan’s to the Soviet Union, will effectively counter Beijing.
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But this presumption is based on a false premise. Today’s China bears little resemblance to the 1980s-era Soviet Union, which suffered from having a flawed governing ideology and an economic foundation that was completely inadequate.

Well before the Soviet Union fell apart, its state-run economy was largely isolated from the global economy, primarily dependent on extractive industries and already in the process of collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions. During the 1980s, the Soviet Union’s gross domestic product was always less than US$4 trillion. Foreign trade accounted for a mere 4 per cent of its gross national product in 1985.

By contrast, China is a highly diversified economic goliath with a blend of public and private sectors. Despite its current economic and financial challenges, China remains at the epicentre of global manufacturing and is growing by around 5 per cent per year. Nearly 90 per cent of its exports are derived from its vibrant private sector. China’s GDP is almost US$18 trillion. It accounts for 14 per cent of global trade and is the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries. It bears little resemblance to the former Soviet Union.

The collapse of the Soviet Union had far more to do with its own inherent contradictions and the vicissitudes of the global economy than with any actions the United States took to hasten its demise. The truth is that the US’ efforts at regime change or containment have not always worked.

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Consider its grand failures in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, for example, or its more recent inability to stop the Houthis from disrupting global shipping in the Red Sea. Since the US failed in its quests with these arguably less challenging countries, just imagine how immense its failure would likely be in attempting to do the same with China.

02:17

China airs footage of Fujian aircraft carrier featuring advanced catapult launch system

China airs footage of Fujian aircraft carrier featuring advanced catapult launch system
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