Marco Vicenzino

Opinion | What Assad’s downfall in Syria and the rise of HTS mean for the world

From Russia and the Middle East to the EU and US, the rise of Islamist group HTS is cause for caution over optimism

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Portraits of ousted Syrian president Bashar al-Assad are dumped in a skip in the Damascus suburb of Daraya on December 9. Islamist-led rebels took Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, sending Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria. Photo: AFP

Marco Vicenzino

Published: 8:30pm, 11 Dec 2024Updated: 1:07am, 12 Dec 2024

After more than 50 years of repressive autocratic rule, over 13 years of bloody civil war that displaced more than 12 million people and a 12-day lightning offensive by opposition forces, the Assad family’s dominance of Syria has ended. With elation comes deep uncertainty about what comes next in Syria and its implications for the region and beyond.

A fundamental question prevails: will Syria transition from a secular dictatorship to a stable representative government or hardline Islamist authoritarianism, or something in between?

The politically and diplomatically correct reply is to express cautious optimism that Syria will pursue the path of a brighter future for its people. But most indications point to a greater cause for caution than optimism.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which spearheaded Bashar al-Assad’s downfall, arguably remains the strongest opposition force in Syria, yet is listed as a terrorist group by the United States, European Union, Turkey and others. The US has a US$10 million bounty on HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a former Islamic State (Isis) fighter, despite attempts to rebrand himself and his group as mainstream Islamists.

So far, HTS has been preaching what most, at home and abroad, want to hear: political moderation and inclusion of minorities. But its iron-fisted governance of Syria’s northwestern Idlib province points to the need for extreme vigilance of the group’s intentions and long-term agenda.

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To provide assurances, HTS must genuinely reach out to a wide range of opposition parties within an all-embracing political framework. This is key to an orderly transition that guarantees security and stability at home and the broader region. In the longer term, a new national compact is needed. A zero-sum approach by HTS, or any other opposition group, will backfire.