Hao Nan

Opinion | Russia-North Korea pact is striking in its strategic ambiguity

The text of the treaty suggests the partnership will function more as a strategic hedge than a definitive bond

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Hao Nan

Published: 5:30am, 19 Nov 2024

On November 12, North Korea announced that it had ratified its comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with Russia, which Russian President Vladimir Putin had already signed into law on November 9, completing the process for both sides. This formalises an alliance that the US and its allies view with growing alarm.

This treaty – which took five months to ratify on both sides following the initial announcement during Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June – aligns the two countries in mutual defence, marking a significant shift in Northeast Asian geopolitics.

The Kremlin’s seemingly cautious framing of this alliance appears at odds with Pyongyang’s more overt enthusiasm. For Russia, deepening ties with North Korea represents an attempt to resist Western pressure amid its war in Ukraine. However, the treaty’s conditional nature suggests Russia is wary of overcommitting.

Since the treaty was announced, Russia has moved cautiously, emphasising the partnership without echoing North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s hyperbolic language.

While Kim lauded the relationship as an “invincible alliance”, Putin described it more temperately as having reached an “unprecedentedly high level”. This careful wording hints at Russia’s strategic ambivalence, balancing the alliance’s symbolic value against the potential risks of a formal defence commitment with North Korea.

Russia’s ambivalence was also evident in its handling of the treaty ratification process. Despite the high-profile announcement in June, the Kremlin did not start the legislative approval process until October when North Korea reportedly deployed troops to Russia, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who condemned the alleged deployment.