Cao XinandCao Zhong

Opinion | Why Mongolia’s ‘third neighbour’ policy has Russia worried

Mongolia is unlikely to abandon efforts to diversify its diplomatic relations, but Russian economic incentives could slow the pace of change

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Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Mongolia’s President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh shake hands during a joint media statement following their talks in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, on September 3. Photo: TNS

Cao XinandCao Zhong

Published: 8:30pm, 12 Sep 2024

Amid the war with Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Mongolia on September 3 with two main goals: seeking financial support from the East and stabilising Mongolia’s “third neighbour” policy in the hope of preventing Mongolia from aligning with the United States, Japan or Nato.

Achieving both objectives presents difficulties. Without support from China, financial resources are unlikely to be secured. If financial goals remain unmet, stabilising Mongolia’s foreign policy will be even harder without applying unsustainable pressure.

International sanctions have left Russia increasingly dependent on Mongolia, not just for natural resources but also for access to Chinese markets. Mongolia’s geographical and economic position allows it to help Russia circumvent sanctions and maintain trade with China, thus reinforcing ties with its southern neighbour.

Putin highlighted the importance of trilateral cooperation between Russia, Mongolia and China, describing it as the foundation of their comprehensive partnership. He noted that the first high-level trilateral meeting occurred in 2014 during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

Since then, a robust framework for mutually beneficial cooperation has been established, including the 2016 signing of a plan to create a China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. This would integrate Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Mongolia’s Prairie Road plan.

During his visit, Putin discussed the benefits Mongolia has reaped from trilateral cooperation. He pointed out that the volume of container cargo transported between Russia and China through Mongolia has increased, with the Ulaanbaatar railway carrying a record 32.4 million tonnes of goods in 2023.