Opinion | Can democracy in South Asia withstand US-China rivalry?

Recent developments in South Asia, particularly the uprising in Bangladesh, are transforming regional dynamics with potentially global impacts. Home to 1.94 billion people, South Asia is grappling with rising extremism, democratic backsliding and political instability. As a key player in the Indo-Pacific, the region’s turmoil – particularly given Bangladesh’s strategic position in the Bay of Bengal – holds profound significance.

The chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s 2021 resurgence, regarded by many as a US foreign policy failure, sparked a refugee crisis and additional security issues involving Pakistan. US sanctions and international isolation worsened the suffering of the Afghan people, especially women and children. The 2021 military coup in Myanmar has added to regional migration pressures.

In 2022, Sri Lanka faced its worst economic crisis since it gained independence, marked by 55 per cent inflation and a debilitating debt crisis, leading to crowds eventually storming the president’s official residence. By 2023, Pakistan had sunk further into political and economic turmoil, with foreign reserves falling to US$3.1 billion and civil unrest erupting after former prime minister Imran Khan was arrested.

In April this year, massive protests gripped Nepal, with demands for the restoration of the monarchy. Amid the unrest, political parties were able to form a coalition government as the country balanced ties between India and China. And now Bangladesh, South Asia’s second-largest economy, has experienced bloody regime change sparked by student protests over job quotas that escalated with extremist involvement.