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Opinion | As China’s leverage on North Korea slips, it’s time for a new approach
- Deepened ties between Russia and North Korea necessitate that China move from a strategy of persuasion to one of offensive engagement
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The country most impacted by the fallout from the treaty between Russia and North Korea is China. North Korea’s supply of military aid to Russia has put China’s diplomatic front on high alert. In a severe setback, China’s leverage over North Korea has begun to wane, leading to fractures in their bilateral relationship.
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The strain between North Korea and China is a predictable outcome based on North Korea’s historical pattern of “pendulum diplomacy”. This strategy of shifting between major powers to advance its national interests has made both China and Russia targets of North Korea’s balancing act.
Additionally, there is concern that China could fall into a kind of alliance entrapment if North Korea and Russia engage in joint military action. Even if relations between North Korea and China deteriorate, the North Korea-China-Russia trilateral system is likely to come into play during a conflict, potentially reverting the region to a dark period.
The close alignment between North Korea and Russia is also detrimental to China due to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (Nato) swift expansion into Asia. The Nato-IP4 security alignment has led to the creation of a robust maritime military network in the Indo-Pacific region. China’s maritime security zone has become a potentially perilous area.
It’s likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin did not foresee that his war in Ukraine would cast such ominous shadows over Asia, and especially China. This situation underscores the lesson that many wars stem from political leaders’ misperceptions and misjudgments.
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