Opinion | US and China owe the world their best effort to avert war in East Asia

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues into its third year in the western part of the Eurasian continent, another source of war is brewing in the east. Two potential military blocs, the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral grouping and the Russia-China-North Korea coalition, are in the making, positioning East Asia on the brink of war.

The four triggers escalating tensions in East Asia include the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit at Camp David in August last year; William Lai Ching-te’s election as Taiwan’s president in January; North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s declaration on January 16 designating South Korea as its “principal enemy”, abandoning peaceful reunification; and the mutual defence pact signed between Russia and North Korea during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang last month.

As a result, two emerging military blocs in East Asia could be poised for large-scale conflict. The US-Japan-South Korea grouping leverages long-standing bilateral military treaties. On the other side, the Russia-China-North Korea alliance, though not fully formed, shows strong potential, bolstered by strategic partnerships and mutual defence agreements.

The source of war in East Asia is brewing. Russia, China and North Korea, three nationalist authoritarian regimes, see war as necessary for regime survival when it is at risk. The war in Ukraine is crucial for the legitimacy of Putin’s regime, and failure could cost him everything. For President Xi Jinping, reunifying Taiwan is a significant source of legitimacy for the Communist Party of China. Regime survival is also paramount for North Korea, where Kim would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if his regime’s survival was threatened.