Sagina WalyatandSebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa

Opinion | How Modi 3.0 could steer India-China relations

A coalition government and closer ties with the West suggest a more cautious approach. Will Modi choose greater rivalry or cooperation with China?

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping chat during their informal summit in Mamallapuram, India, on October 11, 2019. Photo: PTI/dpa

Sagina WalyatandSebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa

Published: 4:30pm, 23 Jun 2024Updated: 6:50pm, 23 Jun 2024

India’s latest election marked a resurgence of democracy, as voters pushed back against concentrated power and the ethno-nationalist sentiments in the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. This shift may force Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reconsider his hardline policies and opt for more cautious approaches. Implemented wisely, such changes could bolster India’s international standing.

India’s return to coalition government brings to mind the diverse alliances from 1989 to 2014. These coalition governments implemented major economic reforms, spurring significant growth across various sectors in India’s journey to becoming the world’s fifth-largest economy.

But a rising India under Modi has also seen its relationship with neighbouring China enter a complex phase. Both vast and competitive economies, they are facing hurdles in building their friendship and, increasingly, security concerns are outweighing economic considerations.

Border clashes – especially in 2013, 2014 and 2017 – have shaped the relationship, and the 2020 Galwan Valley incident signalled a turning point. The long-standing animosity, China’s hegemony in the Indian Ocean and its salami-slicing tactics along the Line of Actual Control – a loosely defined ceasefire line – has pushed India towards the US. At the same time, China is drawing closer to India’s adversary Pakistan.

This divergence underscores Beijing and New Delhi’s distinct geopolitical interests. China pursues a global agenda, leveraging soft power with its Belt and Road Initiative while asserting dominance in the South China Sea. In contrast, India prioritises diplomatic interactions with developing nations and has recently strengthened ties with the US, guided by the disparity between its military expenditure and China’s.

India’s deepening alliance with the United States, characterised by President Joe Biden as “the defining partnership of the 21st century”, reflects their shared interests in managing China’s influence despite the historical mistrust.