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Opinion | Climate change threat is more than a storm in Vietnam’s coffee cup

  • From Brazil and Colombia to Indonesia and Vietnam, coffee crops over the last decade have been hit by adverse weather and climate-related disease
  • Supply is increasingly unstable and shrinking, even as the land suitable for cultivation is fast disappearing

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A farmer watering coffee plants in Vietnam’s central highlands near Buon Ma Thuot in Daklak province on March 13, 2023. Photo: AFP

Trouble is brewing for drinkers of coffee, one of the world’s most traded commodities, as climate change affects farmers, reshaping production patterns.

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Amid a worsening drought in Vietnam, the world’s second-biggest coffee producer and leading supplier of the robusta bean (commonly used in instant coffee), news that its coffee exports may fall by 20 per cent this year sent prices soaring, with robusta futures hitting record highs.

Coffee plays a sizeable role in Vietnam’s economy, bringing in over 10 per cent of its revenues from agricultural exports and 3 per cent of its gross domestic product. Last year, Vietnam exported 1.61 million tonnes of coffee, earning a record high of US$4.18 billion.

While Europe dominates the more lucrative market for processed coffee (such as instant coffee), the low value-added market for unprocessed coffee (such as raw beans) is dependent on poorer countries – along with Vietnam, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia and Ethiopia are responsible for 70 per cent of this sector.

For these Global South growers, coffee exports are an important source of revenue.

04:31

Southeast Asia roasts as nations suffer under expected record-breaking heatwave

Southeast Asia roasts as nations suffer under expected record-breaking heatwave
Vietnam’s drought reflects the fragility of coffee production in the face of climate change, particularly in recent years. Brazil, which produces around 40 per cent of the world’s coffee, lost 20 per cent of its crop in 2021 to frost and drought. Last year, Indonesia’s robusta output dropped by 20 per cent because of El Nino, a weather pattern that only started abating this year.
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