Opinion | To survive US-China rivalry, Asean must work to dial down tensions

For the first time, a majority in Southeast Asia favour alignment with China over the US, according to “The State of Southeast Asia 2024” survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. The survey’s accuracy in reflecting mass opinion has been questioned, given its elite group of respondents – which included government officials, researchers, pundits and businessmen – and the weighting applied to each country’s response. But it still offers valuable insights for leaders in the United States, China and especially the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

My biggest takeaway is that Asean centrality as a diplomatic approach should be re-examined. To keep Asean safe and prosperous, asking the US and China to respect the bloc’s centrality is not enough. To survive, Asean must be pro-China and pro-US in different ways, but not seen as against either side. After all, should push come to shove, some Asean members under domestic pressure may not have the luxury of avoiding a choice.

For China, although it was favoured over the US by one percentage point, the region’s distrust of Beijing also ticked higher. This is unsurprising given the South China Sea tensions.

That fewer would choose to align with the US over China in the latest survey is also likely to be a reflection of a growing disapproval of the US, whose pro-Israel stance in the Gaza war has made it extremely unpopular in Muslim-majority countries. Consumers in Indonesia and Malaysia, for instance, have boycotted products by companies seen as pro-Israel.