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Alex Lo

It’s not every day that friendly and inoffensive Canada gets lumped with nasty Russia and China. But that was what Mike Pompeo did when he last attended the Arctic Council (AC) as US secretary of state under Donald Trump.
“We recognise that Russia is not the only nation making illegitimate claims,” he said. “The US has a long-contested feud with Canada over sovereign claims through the Northwest Passage.”
If every crisis presents an opportunity, the converse is also true. Pompeo points to the challenges Canada faces or will face when enough Arctic ice melts because of climate change.
The waters off its shores will open the major waterway known as the Northwest Passage, potentially cutting shipping time between Europe and Asia by half.

Should that happen, Canada has a real shot at becoming a major commercial port and maritime powerhouse by claiming the passage as its own sovereign territorial waters.
The Arctic sections of Canada’s Northern Territories – long commercially a wasteland – could be developed into valuable real estate. It’s worth recalling that, though it’s often described as the world’s second-largest country, most of its population live south of the 55th parallel, with more than 60 per cent in the provinces of Ontario and Quebec.
Development will also bring some prosperity to indigenous Arctic residents such as the Inuit who have long been neglected and discriminated against and are economically deprived.
But given the enormous strategic and commercial potential, no one should be surprised that three of the world’s most powerful and aggressive nations – Russia, China and the United States – all have designs on what may be the most important maritime asset of this century. To be fair, as a self-described “near-Arctic” nation, China has been much less assertive.
However, China and Russia are close to inking a deal on shipping routes in the Arctic as part of their mutual efforts to counter Western pressure. How alarmed should the West, and Canada in particular, be?

Russia is a member of the Arctic Council, along with Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the US. China has had observer status since 2013. The council has been more like a gentlemen’s club in that it has no legal status under international law and therefore its decisions are non-binding.
A new book, China-Russia Relations in the Arctic, has argued China does not want to upset the applecart: “We argue that the image of China in the Arctic must be more nuanced; Sino-Russian relations in the AC do not stand out compared with the relations between other Arctic states. China’s own interests are the foundation for its engagement in the AC.”
That may be true so far. But as soon as there is money on the table, everyone, not just China, will start asserting competing claims.
Given the glowing rivalry between the West and East, it would be natural for the council members to break into two opposing blocs.

But here is where the claims and counterclaims between Ottawa and Washington get interesting. Pompeo was belligerent and showed contempt for Canada, but he was profoundly ignorant.
There was no “feud” between the two countries; both have been letting sleeping dogs lie. Canada has claimed sovereignty over the waters at least since the end of World War II, while the US says it is mostly international waters.
But the contest was not significant so long as most of the passageway was blocked by ice.
Now, it’s all changing. Washington would be foolish to stick with its long-standing position.
Quite simply, if the passageway is in international waters, it would mean China and Russia, or anyone else, can have free access.
Given its glowing antagonism, it’s doubtful that’s what the US wants. It will make much more sense for Washington to switch tracks and back Ottawa’s claim, as the country is much easier to control, and to field warships to show support, if necessary.
Thanks to climate change, the Arctic promises interesting times ahead.


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Transport and logistics

The next battleground between East and West may be the Arctic

The Arctic sections of Canada’s Northern Territories – long commercially a wasteland – could be developed into valuable real estate. Photo:  Shutterstock

When enough Arctic ice melts because of climate change, Canada has a real shot at becoming a major commercial port and maritime powerhouse. Photo: Getty Images

Mike Pompeo, Donald Trump’s US secretary of state, claimed the US had “a long-contested feud with Canada over sovereign claims through the Northwest Passage.” Photo: Bloomberg

Canadian part-time military volunteers ride snowmobiles on Cornwallis Island, Nunavut in the Arctic. Canada has claimed sovereignty over the Northwest Passage at least since the end of World War II. Photo: Reuters

China, Russia plot course for Arctic cooperation, shipping routes to counter West

Beijing and Moscow hope that jointly developing Arctic shipping routes will make their economies more resilient in the face of Western pressures. Photo: Shutterstock Images

Chinese Premier Li Qiang (left) and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin shake hands during a signing ceremony in Moscow on Wednesday. Photo: EPA-EFE

Pentagon to bolster response to China, Russia in melting Arctic

A polar bear stands on melting Arctic sea ice in Svalbard, Norway. Photo: Polar Bears International / KT Miller / AFP

Kathleen Hicks, Washington’s deputy defence secretary. Photo: AFP

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia on July 15. Photo: AFP

Russia seeking China’s help to develop Arctic shipping route – is it worth it for Beijing?

Russia is looking for ways to boost the amount of shipping using the Arctic. Photo: Shutterstock 

Vladimir Putin pictured with Xi Jinping during his visit to Beijing in May. Photo: AP

Is China-Russia cooperation in the Arctic a double-edged sword for Beijing?

Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

Western sanctions and distrust draw China, Russia closer in the Arctic

China-Russia cooperation in the Arctic Ocean is expanding to include energy and science, as well as defence. Photo: Shutterstock

Opinion

As the ice melts and new shipping lanes open up, Canada’s sovereign claim over the Northwest Passage is likely to become hotly contested


As the ice melts and new shipping lanes open up, Canada’s sovereign claim over the Northwest Passage is likely to become hotly contested.


China-Russia relations

Climate change

Canada

Russia

Donald Trump

Diplomacy

United States

Iceland

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

My Take

My Take | The next battleground between East and West may be the Arctic

As the ice melts and new shipping lanes open up, Canada’s sovereign claim over the Northwest Passage is likely to become hotly contested