Coronavirus: as Covid-19 cases in some US states swell, a model revises estimates upwards
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation revises projections for a second time in less than a week, as states ease restrictions faster than expected
- In many states – Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas and Maryland, among them – daily reported cases are still on the rise
Even as confirmed coronavirus cases in some US states swell, one of the most influential models used to predict the spread of Covid-19 is revising its estimates upwards.
Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) were forced to re-crunch their numbers and release new data on Sunday, less than a week after their last revision. The move came as states like California reported unexpected upticks in confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths.
The model, which has been widely relied upon by both state and federal officials, now says that California could see more than 6,000 Covid-19 deaths by the end of August – 1,420 more than what the last round of projections, released on May 4, forecast.
But the reason new models are needed is that states are accelerating plans to ease restrictions far more quickly than anticipated – or public health officials advise.
The IHME said they made the revisions based on gaining a week's worth of new data including daily reports of Covid-19 deaths and infections. However, “formal plans to ease social distancing policies and testing rates [are] in turn having different effects on state-level Covid-19 predictions”.
