Public support for 2017 reform package will not be enough to sway pan-democrats, says mainland expert

Mobilising public opinion will not be enough to force pan-democrats to support electoral reform, as the crux of the issue is whether they are willing to forge a consensus with Beijing, a mainland expert on Hong Kong affairs says.

Jiang Shigong, a core member of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, said he hoped Beijing officials and pan-democrats would engage in dialogue.

The academic was speaking a day after the Hong Kong government put forward its blueprint for the 2017 chief executive election.

It requires chief executive hopefuls who have secured "recommendations" from at least 120 members of the 1,200-strong nominating committee to then gain majority support from the body. The top two or three candidates will go forward to a "one man, one vote" public election.

The weight of public opinion in favour of settling for a less-than-ideal version of universal suffrage is seen as the government's last hope of winning the support of the pan-democrats to pass the legislation.

Some Hong Kong officials have suggested that backing from over 60 per cent of Hongkongers might be enough to persuade pan-democrats to support the reform package, while Qi Pengfei, another mainland academic on Hong Kong affairs, believed pan-democrats would only be persuaded to vote in favour if public support was near 70 per cent.

But Jiang told the that the government should not rely on the weight of public opinion. "In 2005, pan-democrats voted down the Hong Kong government's proposal for the 2007-08 elections although nearly 60 per cent backed the package."