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Emily Hung

Hong Kong’s labour shortage is expected to worsen and reach 180,000 workers by 2028, driven by a rapidly ageing elderly population projected to account for almost a third of the city’s residents.
The Labour and Welfare Bureau on Thursday also predicted skilled technical staff, such as escalator mechanics and construction workers, would make up more than one-third of the total shortage.
The study, conducted in 2023, analysed 17 key sectors and gathered views from more than 1,000 industry players to determine the supply and demand of manpower in the coming five years.
The government predicted manpower supply to hit 3.56 million and demand to reach 3.75 million in 2028, which would result in a shortage of 180,000 workers, based on the assumption the economy would grow by 3.2 per cent each year.
The figure marked a 260 per cent increase compared with the shortage of 50,000 in 2023.
“The ageing population is our biggest challenge,” Secretary for Labour and Welfare Chris Sun Yuk-han said. “The working population will shrink while the median age of workers will increase.”
By 2028, more than 2 million people, or 28 per cent of the population, would be aged 65 or above.
The working population, aged between 15 and 64, will stand at 4.6 million, accounting for 63 per cent of the population.

The median age will rise to 50.2 in 2028, from 48.3 in 2023.
But he noted that the number of people aged between 35 and 44 increased by 20,000 in 2023, the biggest increase over the past two decades.
Sun attributed the net increase to the government’s talent drive from late 2022 onwards.
Other factors affecting the supply and demand of labour included the use of artificial intelligence and automation, the education level of the workforce and local economic growth and restructuring.
Roy Chan Kwok-fai, head of the research unit of the bureau, said it predicted a 10 to 20 per cent drop in worker demand due to the use of artificial intelligence and automation.
The 180,000 person shortage includes skilled technicians, service industry workers, professionals and managers and manual labourers.
About one-third, or 60,000, are skilled technicians, such as construction workers, escalator mechanics and aircraft maintenance technicians.
In this year’s policy address, authorities planned to attract 10,000 workers aged 35 or below and without a degree over three years to help plug the gap.
Sun said the government would continue to import talent and labour, while calling on employers to explore different solutions to boost productivity and upskill their workers. A midterm review of manpower will be made in 2025.
Labour sector lawmaker Chau Siu-chung said while importing labour for specific industries facing shortages could be one of the solutions, the government should not overlook the structural problems that pushed out local workers.
“If the salaries continue to be low, hours continue to be long and workers continue to be subject to poor working conditions, the imported workers can hardly stay on either,” Chau warned.
He also urged the government to maintain closer communication with labour unions when assessing the shortages and considering importing labour, as it would give authorities a better understanding of the jobs and the reasons behind the crunch.
“It will not be scientific if the government blindly imports labour to fill the 180,000 vacancies,” he said. “Most importantly, we cannot rely on outsiders in the long run, we have to figure out ways to make those industries more attractive for the younger population.”
Finance scholar Simon Lee Siu-po said the labour shortage problem was not unique to the city.
As a result, the city had to compete with other economies when bringing in workers, who might not stay if they found better opportunities elsewhere, he said.
“It would be best to help them settle down in the city if they have worked here for a certain period of time, we are doing that for the high-end talent, why not consider the rest as well?” he said.
“The ageing problems in those technical industries will continue if the new blood is not incentivised to stay.”
He warned that the gap of 180,000 workers could in the long run threaten the city’s competitiveness, as businesses had to continue bearing high labour costs, which would be transferred to consumers.


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Hong Kong is projected to be short of construction workers in the coming  years. Photo: Elson Li

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News

Hong Kong

By 2028, more than 2 million people, or 28 per cent of the population, will be aged 65 or above


By 2028, more than 2 million people, or 28 per cent of the population, will be aged 65 or above.


Hong Kong society

Jobs

Ageing society