Hong Kong to face hotter-than-normal summer, more heatwaves due to climate change: experts
- Rest of country also grappling with extreme weather as south records severe flooding and high temperatures prompt drought further north
Hong Kong recorded its hottest summer solstice in more than 40 years as temperatures reached 34 degrees Celsius (93.2 Fahrenheit) on Friday, as meteorologists warned of a hotter-than-normal summer and more heatwaves ahead due to climate change.
The rest of the country was also struggling under the effects of extreme weather that had brought severe flooding to the south, while a drought was taking a toll on agriculture further north.
Over in Hong Kong, the Observatory recorded a scorching urban temperature of 34 degrees at its headquarters in Tsim Sha Tsui shortly before 4pm, noting it was the highest reading so far this year and marked the hottest summer solstice since 1980.
Other parts of the city were even hotter, with the mercury climbing as high as 36.4 degrees in Sheung Shui.
The scorching weather is expected to continue into the weekend, with temperatures likely to reach 34 degrees on Saturday.
“Under the influence of the subtropical ridge, it will be persistently very hot and generally fine over Guangdong in the next couple of days,” the forecaster said.
Jennifer Yip Ling, a scientific officer at the Observatory, said: “Against the backdrop of climate warming, summer temperatures in Hong Kong exhibit a significant long-term increasing trend.”
She added that temperatures were expected to surpass 28.9 degrees between June and August, which would be above normal levels.
According to the forecaster’s projections, the city’s annual mean temperature will increase 2 degrees by 2081 if gas emission levels remained the same.
Extreme weather was also observed across the country, with Guangdong province’s Meizhou recording 38 people dead on Friday afternoon after heavy rain triggered flooding.
Over Anhui province’s historic Huangshan city, more than 10,000 people were evacuated from their homes after flooding shut down major roads.
Henan and Shandong provinces in the country’s centre and eastern parts has struggling with scorching temperatures and limited rainfall since April, leading to a drought the could affect national grain production.
Widespread heatwaves have also affected the United States, Mexico and Greece, among other countries.
At least five visitors died from the heat in Greece this week. Local authorities also shut down popular tourist destinations in response to reports of patrons fainting as they waited in queues.
In Mexico, the health ministry said it had recorded at least 125 heat-related deaths so far this year as climate change caused temperatures to soar.
Discussing the situation in Hong Kong, former Observatory assistant director Leung Wing-mo said climate change was playing a “vital role” in the city’s very hot days and growing number of heatwaves.
He added that every 0.1-degree rise in temperature would lead to a “big increase” in the number of heatwaves, citing a recent report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
“Without exception, heatwaves are the extreme weather that is strongly associated with global warming,” he said.
Between 2010 and 2019, Hong Kong logged about 27 very hot days on average a year, according to calculations by the Post. Over the past three years, that number has climbed to over 50.
According to the Observatory’s climate projections, Hong Kong could record 75 very hot days every year by 2050, based on the current emission levels.
A worst-case scenario where global greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide emissions double from current levels would result in Hong Kong facing 84 very hot days a year by 2050, it said.
The same data showed the city would have an average of 60 very hot days per year even if greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide emissions declined to net zero over the same period.
Leung added that the summer solstice also played a part in bringing hot temperatures to the city.
The summer solstice is when the sun climbs above the Tropic of Cancer, which is situated on a similar latitude as that of Hong Kong, according to Leung.
“It means that the sun is almost directly overhead of Hong Kong, so the solar intensity is the strongest this time of the year,” he said, adding the normally wet and cloudy weather in June would usually dampen its effects.
But he also said there might be fewer very hot days this year overall, compared with 2023 given that the world was transitioning from El Nino to La Nina, two climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide.
“With the effect of La Nina, seawater in the eastern equatorial Pacific is cooling, so I don’t expect as many very hot weather days as last year,” he said.
Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, a senior economist with the Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, said that increasingly common extreme weather events such as heatwaves and storms could deter tourists from coming to Hong Kong.
He said the city currently relied heavily on short-term visitors from mainland China, who could more easily change their plans due to weather, adding that the situation could threaten the government’s events-driven tourism model.
