Hong Kong to face manpower crunch for doctors and dentists in 2030, health authorities say
- City expected to have shortfall of 1,570 doctors and 180 dentists in 2030, but manpower gap projected to narrow gradually
Hong Kong is expected to have a shortage of 1,570 doctors and 180 dentists in 2030, with the manpower gap projected to ease gradually and reach a surplus of 20 dentists by 2040, health authorities have said.
The Health Bureau revealed in documents submitted to the Legislative Council on Friday that the manpower shortage of doctors would remain in the short to long term, but the gap was expected to narrow from 2032 due to the boost in supply of local graduates as well as non-locally trained doctors.
The manpower gap of doctors was estimated to stand at 1,570 in 2030, 1,400 in 2035 and 1,200 in 2040.
“The supply of doctors will continue to be limited in the short to long term compared with projections in the previous report in 2021,” the bureau said citing the “general demographic factors of population growth and ageing, coupled with the increasing medical burden of chronic diseases”.
The bureau suggested continuing to boost the supply of local as well as qualified non-locally trained doctors. The measures included further increasing the local quota for medical studies, recruiting and retaining doctors from the public sector, and facilitating new special and limited registration channels.
Health authorities also projected a shortage of 180 dentists in 2030, while the figure was expected to narrow to 120 in 2035.
In 2040, there will be a surplus of 20 dentists in the city, according to the bureau.
“It is projected that there will be a shortage of dental manpower in the short to medium term,” the bureau said. “Manpower will return to sufficient levels towards the end of the projection period, which is the result of the measures to increase the supply of dentists.”
The bureau suggested measures be taken to address the shortage of dental manpower in the short to medium term, while monitoring the long-term situation of manpower supply and demand.
Authorities also projected a short-to-medium-term worsening shortage of nurses in general clinic services because of a growing demand, with the shortage standing at 8,700 in 2030, 6,900 in 2025 and 6,000 in 2040.
Measures to tackle the shortages were suggested by the bureau, such as introducing qualified non-locally trained nurses and further improving local nurse training.
But the manpower of nurses in psychiatry care is expected to have a surplus of 60 in 2030, which will rise to 600 in 2035 and 1,220 in 2040 thanks to the stable supply of graduates in the sector.
Estimates also suggested there would be a shortage of 240 traditional Chinese medicine practitioners in 2030 and 130 in 2035, although this figure was expected to turn into a surplus of 190 in 2040.
On a positive note, the projection for midwives and chiropractors was sufficient.
According to the estimates, there will be a surplus of 1,070 midwives in 2030, 1,120 in 2035 and 1,140 in 2040.
A surplus of 70 chiropractors is expected in 2030, 120 in 2035 and 150 in 2040.
