Mass lockdowns in Europe may have helped save 59,000 lives, says study
- Researchers from Imperial College in London looked at how 11 countries had responded to the crisis and estimated how many lives had been saved by intervention
- Some of the worst affected countries such as Italy and Spain would have seen tens of thousands more deaths, according to the model
Mass lockdowns and widespread social distancing may have prevented 59,000 Covid-19 deaths, according to a new model from Imperial College in London.
A team of researchers – including Neil Ferguson, whose projections helped inform the British government’s response to the outbreak and Samir Bhatt – estimated that tens of thousands of lives had been saved in 11 countries as a result of measures such as case isolation, school closures, bans on mass gatherings as well as local and national lockdowns.
The measures had a “substantial impact in reducing transmission” for countries with more advanced epidemics, with an estimated 38,000 deaths averted in Italy and 16,000 in Spain, but it is “too early to be sure” about similar reductions for countries in the earlier stages of the outbreak, researchers said.
Most countries in the model – Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom – began their interventions between March 12 and 14.
“While we cannot determine which set of interventions have been most successful, taken together, we can already see changes in the trends of new deaths,” the researchers said.
