Chinese rocket scientists find ICBMs age much faster than they thought

Hundreds of intercontinental ballistic missiles could be unusable, according to new research into the shelf life of missile fuel

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Solid fuel used in ballistic missiles may not be able to be stored for as long as previously thought, according to a Chinese study, which suggests “this could be one of the fundamental reasons for the frequent ignition and test launch failures in recent years”. Photo: AP

Published: 10:00pm, 7 Dec 2024

A subtle, yet significant, issue with the solid fuel used in intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) has been uncovered in a study by Chinese rocket scientists. And it could explain the frequent launch failures experienced by some nuclear powers in recent years.

Under normal storage conditions, typical missile fuel can appear stable for 160 years or more. But tests conducted at the National Key Laboratory of Solid Rocket Propulsion in Xian found that considerable changes may occur in the fuel columns within 30 years, making them unable to withstand the loads during flight.

“This could be one of the fundamental reasons for the frequent ignition and test launch failures in recent years,” the project team, led by senior engineer Qin Pengju, wrote in a peer-reviewed paper published on November 25 in the Chinese Journal of Propulsion Technology.

In November 2023, a Minuteman III ICBM manufactured by Boeing experienced anomalies during flight, leading to its self-destruction. Just two months later, a Trident II missile, also made by the United States and launched from a British Royal Navy submarine, suffered a similar fate.

Both types of missiles are vital parts of the nuclear deterrent forces of the US and its allies. More than 400 Minuteman III missiles are in service. They were manufactured in the 1970s, while the Trident II has been operational for nearly three decades.

In their research, Qin and his colleagues focused on the solid propellant commonly used in these missiles, which mainly consists of ammonium perchlorate, aluminium powder and HTPB binder.

The scientists subjected the fuel to accelerated ageing treatment at high temperatures for up to a year and found that, while the aged propellant appeared stable during routine storage, when put under high pressure, it became significantly more brittle compared to new fuel.