Japan – and world economy – at high risk of crippling megaquake: Chinese seismologist

A rupture in the Nankai Trough off the Japanese east coast could affect the global supply chain, researcher says

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Japan’s ‘megaquake’ warning: what is it and how to prepare

Zhang Tongin Beijing

Published: 2:06pm, 15 Aug 2024Updated: 9:46am, 16 Aug 2024

The risk of a mega earthquake from a fault line off the east coast of Japan is high, with potentially devastating threats to millions of people living in the zone and to the global economy.

The warning from the Seismological Society of China comes just days after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake originating in the Nankai Trough area hit the Japanese island of Kyushu.

In a video posted online by the society, Gao Mengtan, from the Institute of Geophysics at the China Earthquake Administration, said a partial rupture in the trough could result in an earthquake above magnitude 8.5, and a complete rupture in a magnitude 9.1 earthquake.

The quake could trigger a tsunami of more than 10 metres (33 feet), destroying 2.38 million buildings and killing 320,000 people in addition to displacing up to 9.5 million people, Gao said.

“Cities near the Nankai Trough, especially in the Chugoku and Kansai clusters, are key economic centres, accounting for 70 per cent of Japan’s manufacturing,” he said.

“An earthquake in this region would not only affect Japan’s manufacturing sector but also affect the global supply chain, with potential economic losses reaching 220 trillion yen [US$1.5 trillion], twice Japan’s annual budget.”