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Vanessa Cai

China’s shrinking population brings both negative and positive effects, President Xi Jinping has said, noting that a lighter environmental burden is among the benefits of a smaller population.
The Chinese leader also defended the “correctness and effectiveness” of past birth control policies, according to excerpts from a speech to the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission.
He made the speech in May last year but the excerpts were published for the first time on Friday in Qiushi, the Communist Party’s top theoretical journal.
The impact of population decline “must be viewed in a dialectical manner”, Xi told commission officials.


The drop could bring positive effects, he said, such as “easing pressure on resources and the environment” as well as forcing economic development.
But Xi also acknowledged the negative effects, such as a reduced labour force and weaker consumer and investment momentum.
“Overall, the impact of population decline on economic and social development has both positive and negative aspects. We cannot look at it from just one side. Some issues require long-term consideration, and we should avoid rushing to conclusions … and we should work to maximise benefits while avoiding harm,” he said.
China faces deepening demographic challenges as its birth rate plummets. Only 9 million births were reported in the country in 2023, the lowest since records began in 1949, as the population dropped for the second year in a row to 1.4 billion, a decline of more than 2 million.
National and local governments have rolled out a raft of policies, such as cash subsidies and extended maternity and paternity leave. But demographers argue these have failed to address deeper issues such as high living costs, insufficient childcare support and persistent gender inequality.
According to the article published on Friday, Xi noted that China’s demographic changes arrived as the country “completed in a few decades what took developed nations over a hundred years to achieve in terms of industrialisation”.
“The pace of population transition is fast, the population decline has come earlier than expected, but overall it follows the general pattern of modernisation development worldwide,” he was quoted as saying by the party journal, which regularly highlights internal leadership speeches months after they are given.
Regarding China’s historic birth control policies, Xi said their “correctness and effectiveness should be fully affirmed”.
The policies “effectively controlled rapid population growth and the pressures it brought, and strongly supported the reform and opening-up”, he said.


China’s one-child policy started in 1980 and was strictly enforced with punishment, including fines for violators and often forced abortion. It officially ended in January 2016 in favour of a two-child policy amid an ageing population and shrinking workforce.
This was followed by a three-child policy in May 2021, after a national census showed a fourth consecutive drop in the annual birth rate.
Friday’s Qiushi article noted Xi’s call for continued reforms and innovation to promote high-quality population development.
But he said rushed decisions leading to “measures introduced hastily that may easily raise controversies” must be avoided.


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In a newly revealed speech, China’s President Xi Jinping has acknowledged there may be some benefits to a declining population as well as economic downsides. Photo: AFP

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China’s NHC said pregnancy and birth was a “difficult and beautiful journey, where women will go through physical and psychological changes” - until the post was removed without explanation. Photo: Shutterstock

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China

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Excerpts of speech to economic officials last year reveal Chinese leader’s views on reduced workforce and pressure on resources


Excerpts of speech to economic officials last year reveal Chinese leader’s views on reduced workforce and pressure on resources.
