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Li Jing

China must prepare for the worst on US climate and energy policy, a mainland analyst said on Wednesday as Donald Trump named an oil executive to be the next US secretary of state.
The US president-elect’s proposal to appoint ExxonMobil chief Rex Tillerson as the top US diplomat followed Trump’s nomination of climate sceptic Scott Pruitt to head the US Environmental Protection Agency. The decision is expected to stall US President Barack Obama’s signature climate legacy, the Clean Power Bill.
Trump’s transition team have also asked the Department of Energy to give names of individuals involved in international climate negotiations.
Tillerson’s nomination was “almost certain” to be a boost to the US fossil fuels sector, veteran climate policy watcher Wu Changhua said.
Trump and US Senate may clash over secretary of state nominee Tillerson’s close ties with Russia
“So far, Tillerson is the only person in the Trump team who has publicly admitted links between human activities and global climate change,” Wu said.
“Yet the oil and gas sectors’ return to glory under the Trump administration looks unavoidable, which will also deal a heavy blow to the development of renewables.”
The oil and gas sectors’ return to glory under the Trump administration looks unavoidable
Veteran climate policy watcher Wu Changhua
Under Tillerson, ExxonMobil, the world’s biggest public oil company, declared support for the Paris Agreement, the global deal reached last year to combat dangerous temperature rises.
Wu said Trump’s team was probably still considering its position on climate change, with Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, meeting Al Gore, a campaigner for action on global warming, earlier this month.
Uncertainty in Asia over Trump’s top diplomat pick
Peking University international relations professor Zhang Haibin said that amid all the uncertainties of Trump’s climate policies, it was time for China to analyse various possible scenarios and prepare responses to manage risks.
It makes more sense for China to have clear thoughts on how it will respond to each scenario, and remain flexible to minimise the risks in an age of uncertainties
Peking University international relations professor Zhang Haibin
“For instance, the worst scenario could be Trump will withdraw from the UN climate architecture altogether, or he would prefer to remain in the global climate deal but not seriously deliver on its pledges,” Zhang said.
“It makes more sense for China to have clear thoughts on how it will respond to each scenario, and remain flexible to minimise the risks in an age of uncertainties.”
Wu and Zhang agreed that the active Sino-US cooperation on climate under Obama would end with Trump.
Trump picks Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson for US secretary of state
Wu said the two countries would also likely to have common business interests in fossil fuels.
“The US may see China as a market for oil and gas, and even for clean coal technology as an answer to China’s air pollution problems,” she said. “If this turns out to be the case, such collaboration between world’s two largest carbon polluters would definitely not be a positive signal for the world.”


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Climate change

China ‘must prepare for the worst’ in Trump era of climate and energy policy

Tourists wear protective masks while going around Tiantan Park in Beijing. The active Sino-US cooperation on climate under Barack Obama will end with Trump, analysts say. Photo: EPA