South China Sea ‘crises’ still likely during next Trump term: military expert

Retired PLA officer predicts risk of ‘accidents’ could grow after Donald Trump returns to White House, but Beijing is ‘better prepared now’

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Military expert Zhou Bo says that despite frequent clashes between Beijing and Manila, a dispute between the two could be resolved. Photo: Philippine Coast Guard via AP

Published: 9:00am, 19 Nov 2024

Military accidents involving China and the US in the South China Sea will be “increasingly likely” during Donald Trump’s second presidential term, but China is better prepared this time, according to a military analyst and retired People’s Liberation Army officer.

PLA senior colonel Zhou Bo, now a senior fellow with Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, said the risks in the South China Sea were higher than for other flashpoints such as Taiwan.

He said it would become “increasingly likely to have accidents or serious crises in the South China Sea, in the air or sea”.

He added that despite frequent confrontations between China and the Philippines, any serious deadly conflict in the next four years was “still likely to occur between China and the US instead”.

He said he thought Manila had been provocative but “they know the bottom line” and the maritime dispute between the countries “could be resolved”.

Zhou’s remarks draw on the US Department of Defence’s latest China Military Power Report, which states that from autumn of 2021 to autumn of 2023, there were “over 180 instances of PLA coercive and risky air intercepts against US aircraft in the region – more in the past two years than in the previous decade”.