Aukus, Quad allies could face pressure on China from next Trump administration

Experts say the former president is likely to retain existing arrangements when he returns to the White House but may be more demanding

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Delivering remarks after an Aukus meeting in California last year are (from left) Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, US President Joe Biden and then British leader Rishi Sunak. Photo: Reuters

Published: 10:00pm, 10 Nov 2024

Donald Trump’s return to the White House could spell uncertainty for US-led regional security arrangements aimed at containing China, including Aukus and the Quad, experts said, pointing to his unpredictability and history of putting pressure on allies.

Washington’s efforts to contain China’s growing influence weare re likely to continue in Trump’s second term but with a strong “America First” approach, they said.

Charles Hunt, international relations professor at RMIT University in Melbourne, said the only predictable thing about US foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific over the next four years would be its unpredictability.

“Trump will not immediately or intentionally go after existing security architecture in the Indo-Pacific, but it could easily become collateral damage of his erratic approach towards the rise of China and more generalised disdain for multilateralism and what he sees as a US security blanket,” he said.

“He’s on record as saying he’ll make partners in alliances do more to pull their weight and pay their dues for the luxury of protection provided by the US security umbrella.”

While Trump’s first term diverged starkly from the conventional post-war US approach of building global military and diplomatic alliances, his successor Joe Biden worked to shore up existing partnerships and establish new ones.

Among them was Aukus, a defence technology-sharing agreement between the United States, Britain and Australia which emerged soon after Biden took office in 2021, and includes the eventual Australian acquisition of conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines.