Could US-China military ties endure the turbulence of another Trump presidency?

Former president’s ‘dramatic’ differences with top US officials offer insights and caution for potential future of US-China military relations, analysts say

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Published: 6:12am, 24 Oct 2024Updated: 2:33pm, 25 Oct 2024

The presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris comes at a time of rising geopolitical tensions on multiple fronts. In the 10th report of an in-depth series, Amber Wang looks at how the candidate’s attitudes to the US military could shape the future of US-China military relations.

A victory for Donald Trump in the coming US presidential election next month could inject greater unpredictability and complexity into US-China military relations, given the former president’s history of friction with military officials, analysts warn.

US Vice-President Kamala Harris, who recently vowed to continue military communications with Beijing, was more likely to stick to President Joe Biden’s policies countering China, offering greater certainty if she won the election, they said.

“If he [Trump] becomes president, his relationship with the military will be complex and potentially tense, although, broadly speaking, the military must obey the [orders from the] president,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University’s school of international studies in Beijing.

The overall US-China relationship would deteriorate further and become more difficult to manage, Shi said, adding that the relationship between the two militaries “will be similarly affected”.

The clashes between Trump and US military officials during his presidency from 2017 to 2021 encompassed a range of issues, including his proposals to use the military against protesters and their differences over external military strategy, such as a rapid withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and military aid to Ukraine.

In a memoir released in 2022, Mark Esper, who served as Trump’s secretary of defence before being fired by him, said that amid the unrest following George Floyd’s murder in 2020 the former president had inquired about shooting protesters. Trump was eventually persuaded not to consider the move.

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