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Liu Zhen

Multiple sightings of Type 094 submarines transiting in the Taiwan Strait may be a sign that the PLA’s nuclear submarines and missile technology has matured, according to an influential mainland magazine.
The sightings also suggest that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy has at least two ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) with four crews on standby around the clock to act as a nuclear deterrent and counter-strike force.
The assessments were reported in the July edition of Ordnance Industry Science Technology, a military magazine published by the Shaanxi Association for Science and Technology.
The most recent series of sightings were in mid-June, when a PLA submarine with a hunchback body shape was seen by Taiwanese fishermen just west of the strait’s median line, the report said.
The vessel’s profile suggested it was a Type 094, a nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarine.
A surface warship was following closely towards the mainland, and the submarine did not submerge again until it was out of sight, the report quoted witnesses as saying.
The median line is an unofficial boundary that splits the 180km (112-mile) waterway, separating the self-ruled island from mainland China. Beijing does not recognise the line.
With an average depth of just 60 metres, complex terrain and active underwater volcanoes, the Taiwan Strait is a dangerous place for submarines. Subs are at risk of being stranded, colliding, or attracting the attention of an anti-submarine capability presence, according to the magazine.
Yet in November 2021, commercial satellites spotted another PLA ballistic missile submarine on a surface voyage in the strait and escorted by a surface ship.


The vessel was heading north from a PLA naval base in Yulin, in southern China’s Hainan province, and likely headed for Bohai Shipyard in Liaoning in northeastern China. There were also similar witness reports in 2020.
“This means China’s integrated technologies of SSBNs and the submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) are mature,” the report said, adding that the vessel and crews, as well as the command chain and the logistics for operation, were all combat ready.
“This capability was [previously] only possessed by the United States and Russia.”
The report was part of a series of articles to mark the 70th anniversary of the PLA’s submarine force and its author was only identified by the name “Ma Ke”.
Commenting on the June transit, the author said it was unusual for a ballistic missile submarine to surface –the vessels are meant to be as stealthy as possible when on duty and can stay months underwater.
The submarine was spotted in an area of water that was only 45 metres (148 feet) deep – particularly dangerous conditions for a heavy tonnage submarine such as the Type 094 to submerge in.
The report said it was unlikely the submarines surfaced because of a malfunction given that it happened a number of times. Going through the Taiwan Strait instead of the Bashi Channel or Miyako Strait east of Taiwan was also a shorter route from the South China Sea to the shipyard in the north for routine maintenance.
“Rather than risking a pointless underwater passage, it would be better to surface openly and sail normally under the protection of escorting ships,” it said.


The timing of the Type 094 appearance soon after the PLA’s “Joint Sword-2024” exercise surrounding Taiwan also suggested the submarine could have been making an added show of force to the island’s new administration who took office in late May, it said.
The Type 094 ballistic missile submarine – which bears the Nato code name Jin-class – was regarded as China’s “first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent” by the US Department of Defence when the ship entered service in 2007. It now forms a core part of China’s nuclear capability.
According to the Pentagon’s 2023 China Military Power Report, the PLA Navy has been operating at least six of the nuclear-powered SSBNs .
Its 12 JL-2 ballistic missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, have a range of about 7,000km (4,350 miles) – meaning they could hit the northeast of the United States from off the Chinese coast.
The latest version Type 094A – which has been active since 2020 – is reportedly quieter and carries the more powerful JL-3 ballistic missiles with a range exceeding 10,000km – putting almost all the American mainland within striking distance from the South China Sea.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to arm Taiwan.


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China

Military

Chinese magazine says surfacing of vessels point to combat-ready crews, command chain and logistics


Chinese magazine says surfacing of vessels point to combat-ready crews, command chain and logistics.
