China’s third plenum shows it is ‘not in the mood’ to slow down on nuclear arms

Analysts expect speedy boost to ‘quality and quantity’ of China’s nuclear arsenal, as Russian stand shows power of ‘strategic deterrence’

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A nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine of the Chinese Navy patrols the South China Sea. China has rapidly expanded its nuclear arsenal as part of boosting “strategic deterrence”. Photo: Reuters

Hayley Wongin BeijingandAmber Wangin Beijing

Published: 2:02pm, 24 Jul 2024Updated: 6:10pm, 24 Jul 2024

China’s third plenum shows it is “not in the mood” to restrain its nuclear weapons capability as it learns from Russia’s deterrence strategy in Ukraine, observers said after a key policy meeting of the ruling Communist Party.

However, they also warned about the risks of a nuclear arms race with the United States as Beijing sought “respect” for its core interests, especially Taiwan.

During the party’s third plenum last week, the Central Committee pledged to “speed up the development of strategic deterrence forces”, according to a detailed document of the committee’s decisions released on Sunday. The expression is generally taken to refer to nuclear prowess.

In order to develop a “new framework of [military] services and arms”, China would accelerate its “strategic deterrence forces, develop new-domain forces with new combat capabilities, while … [strengthening] traditional combat forces”, the document said.

Those are among a range of measures, from socioeconomic to military, to be realised by 2029 – when the People’s Republic celebrates its 80th anniversary.

‘Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow’: Beijing’s Moscow alliance vs Japan and Europe

China has rapidly expanded its nuclear arsenal in recent years. In 2021, President Xi Jinping made his first call to “speed up the creation of a high-quality strategic deterrence and joint combat system”.