China could match US in military conflict thanks to shipbuilding strength, analysts say

Observers said China’s ability to rapidly reconstitute its combat losses may give it an advantage, including against ‘hellscape’ strategy

China’s military

Seong Hyeon Choi

Published: 10:00pm, 17 Jun 2024

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China’s naval expansion and bolstering of its shipbuilding capabilities may give the PLA a strategic edge in a potential conflict, including the “hellscape strategy” floated recently by the US, military analysts said.

Raymond Kuo, director of the Rand Corporation’s Taiwan Initiative, said that China, alongside Japan and South Korea, has the “largest shipbuilding industry in the world” and can produce completed hulls at a faster rate than the US.

While “American ships tend to be more complex and have greater displacement … China’s ability to relatively rapidly produce naval ships means that it can reconstitute any combat losses more quickly than the United States can,” he said.

“[The PLA] have an additional advantage in that any conflict over, say, Taiwan or the South China Sea would be much closer to their shores.”

According to an analysis of satellite imagery published by the Paris-based Naval News in late May, China’s 10th Type 055 destroyer – its most advanced warship and prime aircraft carrier escort – was recently launched by naval builder Dalian Shipbuilding.

Since the first Type 055 was commissioned in 2020, the first batch of eight are in service and construction of the second batch is well under way, with the ninth reportedly launched late last year.

The Naval News said the shipbuilder has also launched five Type 052 destroyers, all assembled in a single large dry dock, while the same yard was also responsible for modernisation work on the Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier, until the middle of April.

Satellite image of Dalian Shipbuilding’s Dagushan in late April, with China’s 10th Type 055 destroyer in dry dock (top green box). Modules for a second Type 055 are also visible (lower green box), as well as multiple Type 052D modules (red boxes). Photo: Airbus

A report earlier this month from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies said China’s “massive shipbuilding industry would provide a strategic advantage in a war that stretches beyond a few weeks”.

According to the report, China would be able to repair damaged vessels or construct replacements much faster than the US, “which continues to face a significant maintenance backlog”.

The report noted that the US “would probably be unable to quickly construct many new ships or to repair damaged fighting ships in a great power conflict”.

The launch of China’s new destroyer coincided with a ramping up of US efforts to develop a drone strategy to create what Admiral Samuel Paparo described this month as a “hellscape” in the Taiwan Strait to counter any mainland attack on the island.

Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China, to be reunited by force if necessary. Like most countries, the US does not recognise Taipei’s government but is committed to supplying arms for the island’s defence.

Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said the US plans to use a large, lethal drone force to distract China’s military and buy time for the US to defend Taiwan in the case of an attack.

But Washington would have “a lot of work to do” before it could carry out the strategy, including ramping up military stockpiles and increasing production of drone swarms, said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“One shouldn’t forget that you still need to neutralise the Chinese ability to project force on Taiwan … you have to even take out the Chinese ability to sustain the war,” he said.

“For example, you would have to, say, destroy the shipyards if necessary. There will still [be a requirement for] the US to invest in other force projection capabilities, like long-range precision-guided munitions – for example, cruise missiles.”

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said a Taiwan contingency would depend in part on whether the US reverses its declining shipbuilding capability.

The US Naval Institute said in 2021 that the US has just seven shipyards that can build large warships, while China has more than 20, along with dozens of commercial facilities that dwarf the largest US shipyards in size and throughput.

According to Davis, it’s “conceivable” that a larger, more powerful and well armed PLA Navy could allow China to win a prolonged conflict, simply through its “quantitative and firepower advantage”.

“And geography benefits China with the US having to project force across the Pacific into China’s maritime approaches,” he said.

“Also, the relative strength needs to be considered in a broader context of China’s anti-access and area denial capabilities, including land-based long-range missiles, more advanced air power, counter-space capabilities, and cyber and electromagnetic operations.”

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The Type 055 destroyer – also referred to as a missile cruiser because of its size and capabilities – is 180 metres (591ft) in length with a beam of 20 metres (65ft) and has a displacement of around 13,000 tonnes at full load.

It features 112 vertical launch system cells – an advanced system for holding and firing missiles on mobile naval platforms – housing the HHQ-9 long-range surface-to-air missiles and the YJ-18 anti-ship missiles.

Footage revealed in April 2022 showed a Type 055 test-firing China’s latest hypersonic anti-ship missile, the YJ-21.

According to Koh, the import and indigenisation of foreign technology has made Chinese shipyards more “mature” and the increased production of Type 055 destroyers would allow the PLA Navy to deploy them with “greater regularity”.

However, he pointed out that there still remains the question of “how good they are”, with China’s ability to sustain its rapidly growing naval fleets undetermined.

“The only question is that … each of these Type 055 [destroyers] is also quite expensive. So the question of course arises whether China can [even] sustain the construction [with its] current economic issues.”

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