China’s rivals warn of nuclear build-up, but analysts say Beijing seeks quality over quantity
- PLA prioritises precision-strike capabilities and preventing interception over developing large numbers of warheads, defence experts say
- Japan’s defence ministry estimates China could quadruple its nukes to 1,500 warheads by 2035, mirroring Pentagon’s prediction
The assessments follow the release last week of a Japanese defence ministry white paper that said Beijing could quadruple its arsenal to 1,500 warheads by 2035, echoing estimates by the Pentagon in October.
Tokyo estimated the People’s Liberation Army had 350 nuclear warheads as of last year, while an earlier report by the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project estimated Beijing had roughly 410 nuclear warheads and more in production.
“China has been extensively and rapidly enhancing its military capability in a qualitative and quantitative manner, with focuses on its naval and air forces as well as its nuclear and missile forces,” the white paper said.
Nuclear deterrence refers to being prepared to use nuclear weapons as a way of discouraging enemies from launching a nuclear attack first.
