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National People's Congress (NPC)
ChinaMilitary

China military may face tough year ahead as Beijing tightens purse strings

  • An official budget figure for the PLA will not be announced at next month’s meetings but experts forecast small increase
  • Spending will need to be balanced between China’s modernisation plans and recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic

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Illustration: Perry Tse
Minnie Chan

China’s political elite will face a number of political challenges when they gather in Beijing next month for the year’s biggest legislative set piece – the meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, informally known as the “two sessions”. In this latest part of a series looking at the key items on the agenda, we examine the country’s military spending. You can read part one here. 

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For seasoned China watchers, the annual meetings of the legislature, the National People’s Congress, are an opportunity to gauge the general direction of Beijing’s policies and check the pulse of budget announcements for clues about future changes.

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SCMP Explains: The ‘two sessions’ – China’s most important political meetings of the year

SCMP Explains: The ‘two sessions’ – China’s most important political meetings of the year

Among other key indicators, such as China’s economic growth, pundits will be closely watching the 2021 session of the NPC – which opens on March 5 – for signs of the country’s military budget, which defence experts believe will be tight this year.

The People’s Liberation Army does not officially announce its budget. Its outlays and allocations are disclosed in various reports presented at the NPC, which even delegates have only hours to read. Central Military Commission rules forbid the removal of budget documents from meetings.
The PLA’s annual budget grew at a double-digit pace from 1989 to 2015 as part of China’s ambitious modernisation plans for its 2 million-strong military. Spending reached almost 1 trillion yuan (US$154 billion) in 2016, when President Xi Jinping announced plans to restrict increases to single digits.
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Xi, who also chairs the powerful Central Military Commission, has called for a more streamlined PLA as part of an ambitious scheme to create a modern fighting force on a par with the US by 2027, the PLA’s centenary.
SCMP Series
Two Sessions 2021: what’s on the agenda?
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