Risk of South China Sea face-off with Manila higher in air than water: Chinese observer

Warning from top maritime analyst Hu Bo comes as China intensifies efforts to assert claims over disputed, busy waterway

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A Chinese fighter jet deploys flares near a Philippine fisheries bureau plane, close to the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea in August. Photo: AFP

Published: 8:17pm, 8 Jan 2025Updated: 9:36pm, 8 Jan 2025

Beijing faces greater risks of aerial rather than maritime confrontations with the Philippines in the South China Sea, a leading Chinese analyst has warned.

The note of caution from Hu Bo, director of the Beijing-based South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), comes as China intensifies efforts to assert its claims over the disputed waterway, which has seen several confrontations with the Philippines last year.

He also warned of possible run-ins with a US military he claimed was “fatigued by over-deployment” in the region.

Manila’s “retaliatory” actions were becoming “increasingly aggressive” since Beijing stepped up patrols and exercises in the region, particularly in the air near the contested Scarborough Shoal, Hu wrote in an article on SCSPI’s official social media account.

“The risk and uncertainty associated with aerial encounters [between China and the Philippines], especially those of a confrontational nature, are much higher than those at sea,” he added.

Continued “aerial provocations” would force China to respond, with “consequences far graver than those of maritime incidents”, he cautioned.