US consensus on countering China will keep Quad relevant under Trump: experts

The security grouping with Australia, Japan and India is unlikely to thrive as it has under Biden but remains important, observers say

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The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the US, Australia, Japan and India was elevated during President Joe Biden’s term in the White House to include an annual summit at head-of-state level. Photo: AFP

Published: 4:00pm, 3 Jan 2025Updated: 4:27pm, 3 Jan 2025

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is expected to cast a cloud over the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), but Washington’s bipartisan consensus on countering China will ensure the grouping’s continuing importance, observers said.

The framework – between the US, Australia, Japan and India – which flourished during Joe Biden’s presidency, could be overshadowed by Trump’s policy focus in his second term but the Quad allies would remain close to Washington, one expert noted.

The Quad began as a loose partnership to provide humanitarian and disaster assistance after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and was formalised in 2007 by then Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe.

The grouping ceased in 2008 when Australia withdrew during Kevin Rudd’s tenure as prime minister. It was resurrected in Trump’s first term as a security grouping, in response to China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific.

It became a pillar of Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy under Biden, who turned the framework into a head-of-state level mechanism with an annual summit focusing on maritime security and freedom of navigation – with China as the elephant in the room.

On Tuesday, the US State Department published a joint statement with its Quad counterparts to mark the grouping’s 20th anniversary and reaffirming its vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” and its support for regional stakeholders.