South China Sea: Vietnam reef projects and runway may set scene for conflict with Beijing

Satellite images show potential military structures on Vietnamese features in Spratly Islands, which experts say could curb China’s advantage

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A satellite image of Pearson Reef in the Spratly Islands, taken on September 29, suggests Vietnam may be building a 3km runway. Photo: CSIS/AMTI/MAXAR Technologies

Published: 10:00am, 10 Dec 2024Updated: 10:01am, 10 Dec 2024

For years China has had an advantage in the South China Sea as its land reclamation programme on reefs of strategic significance created a possible base for large planes and vessels, including navy ships.

But the dominance might be challenged in the future as Vietnam, another claimant of the Spratly Islands, known as the Nansha Islands in China, pushes ahead with its own land creation and airstrip construction on reefs in the area.

Recent satellite images reveal the emergence of potential military structures on several Vietnamese features in the Spratly Islands and the formation of new embankments enclosing six protected areas. They have been seen across Barque Canada Reef, Central Reef, Tennent Reef, Namyit Island, South Reef and Ladd Reef.

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Another runway could be built on the Vietnamese occupied Pearson Reef, according to a report published in October by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Vietnam initiated its latest expansion of facilities in late 2021. Several think tanks have highlighted their rapid pace and large scale.

An AMTI report released in June indicated that Hanoi was poised to achieve record-breaking island construction efforts this year. It said that from November to May, Vietnam expanded its territory by around 280 hectares (692 acres) across 10 different features in the Spratlys, signalling a marked escalation in its territorial claims.

Analysts say a 3km (1.9-mile) runway taking shape on the Vietnam-controlled Barque Canada Reef considerably enhances Hanoi’s capacity to deploy combat aircraft in the Spratly Islands and boost its maritime capabilities, an advancement that could potentially offset Beijing’s strategic dominance in the South China Sea, much of which China claims as its own.