Chinese analyst forecasts more troubles at sea after US-Philippine task force revealed

South China Sea analyst says Washington-Manila alliance becoming ‘more structured, task-oriented, project-based’

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A Chinese South China Sea scholar says the US is fanning the flames of the dispute between Beijing and Manila over Second Thomas Shoal. Photo: Reuters

Published: 10:00am, 28 Nov 2024Updated: 11:57am, 28 Nov 2024

A Chinese analyst of the South China Sea has warned of more trouble at sea after revelations about the involvement of a US special task force at a disputed shoal.

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin last week confirmed the deployment of Task Force Ayungin, a special operations unit named after the Philippine word for Second Thomas Shoal – a flashpoint in Manila’s maritime conflict with Beijing.

It was the latest example of the US “fanning the flames” and fuelling the fight in the disputed waters, said Ding Duo, deputy director of the Centre for Oceans Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan.

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In an article published on Tuesday, Ding, who recently concluded a visit to the Philippines, where he said he engaged with local sources familiar with the matter, said such support by the United States had emboldened the Philippines to engage in further provocations in its ongoing dispute with China.

It also showed that cooperation between Washington and Manila under their alliance framework was becoming “more structured, task-oriented, project-based”, he added.

Ding said the task force – which comprises around 15 US troops stationed on Palawan Island – was formally established in July, around the same time an agreement was reached between Beijing and Manila over resupplying a decades-old warship deliberately grounded in the Second Thomas Shoal, known in China as Renai Jiao.

In June, during what Manila called the worst confrontation in recent years, China Coast Guard members boarded two Philippine Navy boats to stop personnel transferring food and other supplies, including firearms, to troops stationed on the shoal. Several Philippine Navy personnel were injured in the subsequent clashes, including one who lost a thumb.

A month later, the two countries reached an interim agreement to avoid violent confrontations during Manila’s resupply missions to the Sierra Madre warship, which Beijing says was illegally beached at Second Thomas Shoal by the Philippines.