China war scenario calls for US boost in defence spending to more than 3% of GDP

China’s projected military industrial base cannot be matched without increased spending, lawmakers hear

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Members of the US House select committee on China take part in an interactive simulation on the state of the US defence industrial base on Wednesday. Photo: Laura Zhou

Bochen Hanin WashingtonandLaura Zhouin Washington

Published: 10:59am, 21 Nov 2024Updated: 4:12pm, 21 Nov 2024

The US must prepare for a potential conflict with China by raising its defence spending to more than 3 per cent of GDP, a bipartisan group of lawmakers heard on Wednesday.

The recommendation came during an interactive exercise for members of the House select committee on China, based on a scenario predicted for 2026, and hosted by Washington-based think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

US officials have frequently cited 2027 as a critical point for when they expect Beijing to be capable of mounting a serious military threat to Taiwan, the self-ruled island that many regard as a potential flashpoint between the two powers.

“The Chinese defence industrial base is what I would call on a wartime footing,” Seth Jones, president of the CSIS defence and security department, told lawmakers at the US Capitol Building.

While noting that war with China was not necessarily imminent, Jones said Beijing was “building capabilities for ambitious purposes” and would be in a position by 2027 or so to fight the US.

Beijing views Taiwan as part of China to be reunited, by force if necessary. Like most countries, the US does not recognise the island as an independent state. However, Washington is committed by law to support Taiwan’s ability to defend itself.