China must swiftly engage with Trump 2.0 but ‘hard bargain’ in store: policy adviser

First six months of new Trump presidency to be crucial in shaping future of China ties, academic and policy adviser Wu Xinbo says

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Chinese President Xi Jinping with his then counterpart Donald Trump, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Japan in 2019. Trump begins a second term as president next year. Photo: AP

Published: 9:00pm, 18 Nov 2024

China should proactively engage with Donald Trump early in his second presidency, but must be prepared for a “hard bargain” and to “shoot back” if need be, a noted Chinese academic and policy adviser has said.

“This is going to be a [US] government that only one person governs, and that is Donald Trump … So, [we must] reach out to Donald Trump himself as soon as possible at the highest level,” Wu Xinbo, dean of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies said, delivering a guest lecture at the University of Hong Kong on Monday.

“The first six months of next year will be crucial. It will ultimately determine which path this [China-US] relationship will take.

“China should prepare for a very hard bargain with Trump … Trump wants to get a deal, a good deal … so he will squeeze as much as he can. China has to painfully engage with him,” Wu said at the university’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World.

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However, if the two countries failed to see eye to eye and trade ties suffered through aggressive tariffs, China “should have some ammunition in place to shoot back”, he said.

Wu, who also sits on the policy advisory board of the Chinese foreign ministry, outlined several scenarios for bilateral ties under Trump. The worst-case scenario – a military crisis or conflict – could arise in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea or other areas of the Western Pacific, he warned.