US-China decoupling under Trump could have ‘severe’ effects on ordinary people

An expert in relations between the two countries says both sides would suffer in worst-case scenario but there is room for optimism

Reading Time:3 minutes

The second Donald Trump administration could have repercussions for American and Chinese societies if the president-elect’s threatened 60 per cent tariffs are imposed on China, attendees at an event at the University of Hong Kong heard on Thursday. Photo: Getty Images

Published: 4:00pm, 15 Nov 2024

US president-elect Donald Trump’s second term could have severe repercussions for American and Chinese societies if fears of an expanded national security posture and rising economic barriers are realised, according to a US-China relations expert.

Stephen Orlins, president of the National Committee on US-China Relations, a New York-based non-profit advisory group, said a worst-case scenario would involve a significant shift towards decoupling of the world’s two largest economies.

Deepening divides on trade, investment, and research collaboration could stifle global innovation and worsen tensions, with profound effects on people in both countries, Orlins said, at a talk organised by the Centre on Contemporary China and the World.

Addressing the gathering at the University of Hong Kong on Thursday, he said his worries include an ambiguous national security policy that would affect a number of sectors, a decline in academic collaborations, as well as further reductions in trade and investment.

“So I hope … Trump and the people around him agree on a definition of national security which would allow for more Chinese investment in the US, more American investment in China, which would limit more the restrictions on exports,” Orlins said.

“There still would be restrictions on exports, but it would be a much more well-defined definition,” he said, adding that everything was being scrutinised through the lens of security.