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Zhao Ziwen

Expectations are high for a China-US summit to manage risks ahead of a change of guard at the White House, with the presidents of both countries headed to South America next week.
Observers see such a summit as part of efforts to stabilise ties before Donald Trump takes office as the 47th US president in January, but some are doubtful of any lasting impact.
Beijing announced on Friday that Chinese President Xi Jinping would be in Lima, capital of Peru, from November 13 to 17 for the Apec summit. He will then travel to Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro for the November 17-21 Group of 20 meetings.
Hours earlier, the White House said that President Joe Biden would attend both bloc summits during visits to Peru and Brazil from November 14 to 19.


According to a Bloomberg report, Biden is expected to meet Xi in Lima, and teams on both sides are still finalising the details.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said during his visit to Beijing in August that it was natural for the two leaders to have a sit-down at multilateral talks.
According to Zhiqun Zhu, professor of political science and international relations at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, the two leaders will aim to maintain stability and avoid any contingencies during the transition period.
He expects the summit to be a significant event even though these are the last weeks of the Biden administration.
“Biden is a lame duck [president], so no surprises or substance will emerge from the meeting. However, it is still significant, showing that the two countries will keep communication channels open and China will work with the US government, regardless of which party the president comes from,” Zhu said.
The potential Xi-Biden summit might also be a message to Trump to create a more predictable environment for bilateral relations, Zhu added.
“It will be an indirect message to Trump, hoping that he will not disrupt this most consequential and complex relationship.”


Xi and Biden last met in person on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco last November, after years of tensions over issues ranging from trade, technology and US support for Taiwan, and a serious fallout over Beijing’s alleged spy balloon.
Bilateral ties a hit fresh low in February last year, after the US shot down what it said was a Chinese surveillance balloon in its airspace. Beijing said it was a civilian weather balloon and the US overreacted by shooting it down.
The resultant spat caused US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to shelve a China visit due within days, and 37 Chinese entities were later added to a US Commerce Department’s trade restriction list.
Six months earlier, Beijing suspended several lines of communication with Washington after then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan and met then Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen despite repeated warnings against such a move.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. While the US, like most countries, does not recognise the self-governed island as an independent state, it is opposed to any attempt to take Taiwan by force and is committed to arming it for defence.
But the San Francisco summit appeared to signal a turning of the page in US-China ties, with Biden citing “some of the most constructive and productive discussions” between the two leaders.
Substantive outcomes included the resumption of key communication channels, especially at the military-to-military level. Senior US cabinet members have also since visited China and dialogue has resumed among various working groups.
However, expectations are lower this time around for some observers. Tim Summers, an assistant professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Centre for China Studies, said such a meeting was not likely to lead to any practical outcomes and would only serve to fortify Biden’s legacy.


“Given the impending change of president in the US, any bilateral meeting with Xi will not be very substantive,” Summers said, adding that Biden would want the meeting to “demonstrate his foreign policy legacy”.
According to Neil Thomas, a fellow of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis, the meeting would have little effect on Trump’s decision-making as president.
“The best reason for Xi to meet Biden would be to signal goodwill toward the US-China relationship but that is unlikely to have much effect on the Trump administration,” he said.
A Xi-Biden meeting might even risk “irritating Trump”, according to Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor of politics and international relations at East China Normal University.
However, China would be happy to give Biden a farewell meeting, Mahoney said.
“It’s not impossible to imagine a cordial but brief exchange, if Biden is interested, because Beijing is surely happy to say goodbye to him once and for all.”


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China

Diplomacy

Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden will both be in South America next week for the annual Apec and G20 meetings


Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden will both be in South America next week for the annual Apec and G20 meetings.


Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)