Philippines unlikely to turn up heat in South China Sea dispute after US election: report

Survey of analysts by Beijing think tank says tensions will continue but a major escalation is not expected

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A collision between Chinese and Philippine coastguard ships, one of a series of clashes this year. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 10:00am, 6 Nov 2024

The Philippines is likely to maintain a “low-intensity” approach to China in the transition period after the United States election, a survey by a Beijing-based think tank has concluded.

The South China Sea Probing Initiative spoke to six analysts about how they expected the territorial dispute to unfold in the wake of Tuesday’s vote, including one who said a large-scale conflict was unlikely in the foreseeable future.

“During the transition period of the US government, the Philippines is likely to continue engaging China at sea in a low-intensity manner,” Ding Duo, an associate research fellow at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said in the survey.

“On the legal front, the Philippine president might sign the Maritime Zones Act, using domestic legislation to legitimise gains acquired unlawfully and to expand its unilateral claims.”

The act would enshrine into domestic law the limits of the Philippines’ maritime claims, including its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea.

He also said that in the long run Manila might push for talks with other South China Sea claimants about their maritime boundaries and leave Beijing out of the picture. He also warned that it could trigger a further round of international arbitration.