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Will next US president be able to drive a wedge between Russia and China?

Beijing is likely to want to remain close to Moscow – but maybe not too close

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Illustration: Henry Wong
Orange Wangin Beijing
The presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris comes at a time of rising geopolitical tensions on multiple fronts. In the 12th report of an in-depth series, Orange Wang looks at Russia’s impact on the race and US-China relations.
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Russia is one of the most divisive topics in the 2024 United States election, with many observers questioning whether Washington would continue to support Ukraine if Donald Trump wins.
The Republican candidate has repeatedly claimed that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if he had still been in the White House and has claimed he could settle the war in a single day if he wins this time.

The conflict is also a major barrier between China and the West with the US and European countries repeatedly criticising Beijing’s close relations with Russia.

The US has repeatedly expressed its concerns about China’s close relationship with Russia and has said its economic support “fuels Russia’s war machine” – a charge China has dismissed as smears.

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China has denied that it is helping Moscow’s war effort and says it is just carrying out “normal trade” with its neighbour.

Regardless of whether Trump or his Democratic rival Kamala Harris wins, many observers believe there is little chance that it will have a significant impact on the relationship between Beijing and Moscow.

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