At Sabina Shoal, China and Philippines weigh their next moves. Is conflict ‘inevitable’?

Manila looks to re-establish a ‘strategic presence’ in the contested South China Sea, as Beijing tightens grip on atoll

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A Chinese coastguard ship is seen from the Philippine coastguard vessel BRP Cabra during a supply mission to Sabina Shoal on August 26. Photo: AFP/Getty Images/TNS

Published: 10:00pm, 25 Sep 2024Updated: 10:32pm, 25 Sep 2024

China will try to prevent the Philippines from deploying another vessel at a disputed South China Sea shoal, observers say, fuelling the risk of conflict in the hotly contested waters between the two rival claimants.

After the Philippines recalled the BRP Teresa Magbanua from Sabina Shoal earlier this month, Beijing said its coastguard would continue to “carry out consistent law enforcement activities” in the waters to “safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime interests”.

Manila said it had sent a replacement for the vessel but would not reveal the exact location as part of an “operation adjustment” based on what was learned from previous experiences in dealing with the Chinese vessels.

“It’s better for them to guess where the ship is. Because if they know where it is, they will go there. It’s like a magnet. So, that is our approach. We will not reveal where it is,” National Maritime Council spokesman Alexander Lopez said on Saturday.

02:14

Philippines and China trade blame over confrontation in South China Sea

While both Beijing and Manila appeared to be carefully weighing their next moves for Sabina Shoal, regional observers said the risk of confrontation remained high.