Why China tensions and Donald Trump could test next Japanese leader’s foreign policy prowess

No matter who replaces Kishida as Japan’s PM, experts predict Tokyo to double down on US alliance against Beijing – but uncertainties remain

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Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (left) has worked closely with US President Joe Biden to push for a stronger security alliance as a counterweight to China. Photo: AP

Published: 6:00pm, 18 Aug 2024

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s surprising decision to step down is expected to throw the future of Sino-Japanese relations into deeper uncertainty, with experts predicting that Japan will continue its strategic coordination with the US to counter China.

No matter who succeeds Kishida, observers said Japan’s next prime minister would face two pressing challenges abroad: rising geopolitical tensions with China, and Donald Trump’s potential return as president of the United States, Tokyo’s only treaty ally.

The diplomatic experts were not optimistic about a significant improvement in Sino-Japanese relations, though they said the two sides would continue their economic engagement, and they expected Tokyo to double down on its alliance with Washington and its allies to counter Beijing.

“The US and Japan perceive China as the major strategic challenge in their respective national security and defence strategies,” said Ryosuke Hanada, a security expert at Sydney’s Macquarie University, who noted that the perceived threat was deeply ingrained, extending beyond the views of individual leaders to reflect broader institutional and societal bases.

Despite political scandals at home, Kishida made some breakthroughs in Japan’s foreign policy during his three years in office.

He worked closely with US President Joe Biden to push for a stronger security alliance as a counterweight to China.