Open Questions | Why there’s no quick fix in the South China Sea disputes, and war ‘cannot be ruled out’

An expert on the contested waterway, Wu Shicun calls for rival claimants to work together to demilitarise – and says Beijing should take the lead

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Published: 6:00am, 19 Aug 2024Updated: 11:11am, 19 Aug 2024

Wu Shicun founded the state-funded National Institute for South China Sea Studies. He has spent years researching the South China Sea – its history and geography as well as the regional disputes over this strategic waterway. This interview first appeared in SCMP Plus. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here.

How do you assess the current situation in the South China Sea?

First, the US-led militarisation in the South China Sea is intensifying. Over the years, multilateral security mechanisms led by the US have taken shape. And after the US, the Philippines, Japan and Australia held military drills in these disputed waters in April for the first time, the South China Sea issue has spilled over from what was previously the political-diplomatic realm to the military-security realm.

Secondly, rival claimants have ramped up their unilateral behaviour in the disputed waters. Namely, the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia who are all eager to reinforce their presence in contested waters after the US abandoned neutrality in the South China Sea dispute and as the window narrows for negotiations on a code of conduct.

The foreign ministers of China and the Asean member states agreed to accelerate talks on the code of conduct for the South China Sea in July last year, and they announced a three-year deadline to complete the talks. But the negotiations have not gone smoothly.

When the talks started in 2013, it was believed the rival claimants were looking for a set of rules as a way to regulate China’s land reclamation activities and restrain its expanding maritime powers and law enforcement. But now – with China having completed its island-building – rival claimants are thinking of building their own islands or trying to cement control over disputed waters. That means countries are now less motivated about the code of conduct talks.

So while negotiations are still going on at the working group level or at the level of senior officials, progress is very slow – or there is no progress at all.

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