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Zhao Ziwen

The sudden ousting of Thailand’s prime minister could drag the country further into political turmoil but China is expected to be able to weather the uncertainty, observers say.
In a 5-4 decision on Wednesday, Thailand’s Constitutional Court ruled that prime minister Srettha Thavisin, who took office almost one year ago, breached ethics standards for appointing a cabinet member who served a jail term 16 years ago.
The decision came a day after Beijing announced that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi would visit Chiang Mai this week for a meeting of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, as well as a gathering with his counterparts from Thailand, Laos and Myanmar.
Commerce Minister Phumtham Wechayachai has been named as acting prime minister and the ruling Pheu Thai Party-led coalition has nominated Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, to replace Srettha.
Paetongtarn is considered friendly to China, observers said.
Just days before the dismissal, the court also dissolved the progressive Move Forward Party, the country’s main opposition party.
Thailand has been through two coups and series of street protests since 2006, and before Srettha, three prime ministers had been brought down by court rulings as political struggles played out between the powerful military, royalists and business elites represented by Thaksin’s Pheu Thai.


Zhu Ming, a researcher with Chengdu-based Fudan Western-China International Institute of Finance, said that whatever the changes, Bangkok and Beijing had the experience and strong economic bonds to get through them.
“Thailand’s political environment is inherently fragile, with various factions taking turns in power,” Zhu said. “However, given its national interests, Thailand will not allow dramatic changes in its ties with China.”
A newly industrialised country, Thailand is the second-largest economy of the 10 member states of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).
China has been Thailand’s biggest trading partner for a decade and bilateral trade totalled US$126.3 billion last year.
Thailand is a major market for China’s booming electrical vehicle sector, and home to an EV factory owned by leading Chinese manufacturer BYD.
Chinese tourists are crucial to Thailand’s tourism sector, with 3.5 million visiting last year alone. That number is only expected to increase this year with the introduction of a mutual visa waiver programme.
Over the past decade, China has also steadily pushed for closer defence ties.
Thailand is the oldest US treaty ally in the region and its only one on the Southeast Asian mainland, but its ties with the United States were strained after the 2014 military coup that overthrew the democratically elected government.
In addition, Thailand is crucial to China’s ambitious pan-Asia railway, with plans for three main routes, including one between southwestern Chinese city of Yunnan to Bangkok, to eventually connect China with Singapore and all the countries of mainland Southeast Asia.


Zhuang Guotu, a Southeast Asia specialist from Xiamen University, said Thailand’s desire for China’s support to develop its economy was very strong.
“Despite the political division, Thailand needs China’s infrastructure, manufacturing sectors, and internet technology for the industrial upgrade, this cannot be changed,” he said.
Zhuang also noted the stabilising influence of China’s “soft power” in the kingdom.
“The royalty, military, and its challengers, all have close ties to China, through homogenous culture, blood, and history,” he said.
“Thailand is the country with the longest history of friendship and goodwill among all of China’s neighbouring countries, and there is no other country that can compete with their close ties over centuries.”
Zhu said stable ties with Thailand had a “positive” effect on China’s relations within the broader region.
“Asean is a priority for China’s foreign investment and trade, so in this sense Thailand will play a benchmark role in demonstrating China’s influence in Southeast Asia,” he said.


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A Thai court has dismissed Srettha Thavisin as prime minister. Photo: EPA-EFE

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Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Srettha Thavisin at the party’s final campaign event in Bangkok on May 12, 2023. Photo: AFP

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News

China

Diplomacy

The departure of another Thai prime minister is unlikely to change the economic relationship between the two countries, observers say


The departure of another Thai prime minister is unlikely to change the economic relationship between the two countries, observers say.
