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Bochen Han

Tough on China, less so on Russia, and transactional above all else.
That was the “America First” message Donald Trump and his newly minted running mate J.D. Vance cemented during the four-day Republican National Convention that concluded late Thursday night.
The messaging on China, save for Trump’s remark that Taiwan should pay the US for its defence, was consistent with the hardline posture that many within the Republican Party have taken.
But the pair’s stance concerning Russia’s war on Ukraine underscores the growing rift with others in the party who still push for a more active stance to counter Moscow’s aggression.
This drive has garnered greater urgency after an unprecedented Nato declaration earlier this month accusing Beijing of sustaining Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
Trump referred to the war a handful of times in his roughly 90-minute acceptance speech Thursday night, but said little beyond claiming that, had he been president in 2022 when Russia first invaded, it would not have occurred.
No fan of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Trump has argued that European members of the alliance must take their defence more into their own hands. And while not coming out in full opposition to Ukraine, he has been a consistent sceptic on increased aid to Kyiv.
In his address, Trump repeatedly referred to the Republican Party platform, which contains a commitment to strengthen alliances – without mentioning either Russia or Ukraine.
Vance, in his debut speech to America as a vice-presidential candidate, all but ignored foreign policy beyond assailing trade deals, choosing instead to focus on a domestic, populist economic strategy.

But in keeping with his long-standing opposition to Ukraine aid, he questioned its effectiveness in an interview with Fox News on Monday. “What are we trying to accomplish? Is there a risk of escalation to nuclear war?”
In that interview, the Ohio senator also marked China as the biggest threat to the US, alluding to his comments from earlier this year about the need for Washington to pivot from Europe to Asia.
It’s a posture that Trump has yet to publicly adopt, despite jabs he took at China during Thursday’s speech and his debate with President Joe Biden last month.
But according to analysts, Trump’s pick of Vance on the first day of the convention reasserted his rejection of the neoconservative position that the US should engage militarily worldwide, especially in defence of democracies.
In appointing Vance, “Trump is looking to make changes to US foreign policy and to bolster the part of the party that has rejected neoconservatism and takes the ‘America first’, ‘Asia first’ approach,” said Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Wertheim said that it was likely Trump would be influenced by the party’s “Asia First” contingent, which includes Elbridge Colby, his former deputy assistant secretary of defence for strategy and force development.
The Trump administration, which ran from 2017 to 2021, was widely credited for defining China as a strategic competitor – a posture adopted by the succeeding administration of US President Joe Biden – and Wertheim said that thrust would continue.
On Europe, Wertheim sees more room to change the current trajectory.


“Unlike in 2016, there is now a set of policy experts who have formulated various ways to reduce the US military commitment to Europe, and Trump is clearly interested in those possibilities,” he said.
“The conversation has shifted from burden-sharing to burden-shifting,” he continued, adding that directing resources to deal with China was part of that move.
Though Trump and Vance said relatively little about foreign policy in their addresses, some observers said that the convention’s speaker list was telling.
Many invitees – which included Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, economist Peter Navarro and tech chief executive David Sacks – either opposed increased aid to Ukraine or favoured greater oversight of that aid.
Trump and Vance’s scepticism about the need to support Ukraine’s efforts also runs counter to other Republicans like Matthew Pottinger, Trump’s top White House adviser on Asia during his administration, who has lately been sounding alarms about China’s closer integration with Russia.
Washington, he argued, does not have the option to adopt strong measures against one and not the other.
“It’s going to be a lot cheaper for us to deter in multiple theatres simultaneously, than to deter really well in one theatre but accept major military defeats in other areas because it’s the same enemy,” Pottinger said in a discussion this month at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.
During the event, Pottinger cited the assessment by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that “Beijing is overwhelmingly the No 1 supporter of Russia’s war in Europe”.
He then noted “the US$60 trillion democratic alliance” that includes Nato, Japan, South Korea and Australia, which he said should be capable of subduing the combined economic output of the “axis of chaos” countries led by China and Russia.

Reflecting a similar concern, a group of lawmakers led by Representative John Moolenaar, the Michigan Republican who is the chairman of the House select committee on China, sent a letter this week to National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, calling on the White House to clarify whether Moscow is sharing information with Beijing on how to neutralise the US weapon systems used in the Ukraine war.
Despite his inclination to be soft on Russia, analysts say that Trump might still take action against China for its links to Russia’s industrial base.
But if so, Trump may only keep it up until Beijing is brought to the negotiating table, said James Mann, a senior fellow at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
“This was true in his first term too. You could see him taking actions that are tough and bragging that he was taking strong action, and then, much more quietly, looking for deals,” Mann said.
Trump hinted at his willingness to use trade as a weapon on Thursday night, when he cited his “phase one” trade deal with Beijing in 2020.
The two sides reached that agreement after a year and a half of escalating tariffs that Trump slapped on imports from China, a trade war that still defines US-China economic relations.
“He has always seen himself as a negotiator and a deal maker,” Mann said.
Additional reporting by Robert Delaney


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Trump and Vance’s ‘America first’: hawkish on China, more flexible on Russia

From left, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and his wife Melania are joined on stage by his running mate Senator J.D.  Vance and his wife Usha at the end of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, late Thursday night. Photo: EPA-EFE

In an interview with Fox News, Vance marked China as the biggest threat to the US. Photo: Getty Images/TNS

Trump at the close of the convention on Thursday night in Milwaukee. Photo: AFP

Trump, accepting Republican presidential nomination, vows high tariffs on China-made cars

Republican presidential candidate and former US president Donald Trump, his running mate Senator J.D. Vance and their families celebrate on the final day of the Republican National Convention on Thursday. Photo: AP

Trump and US President Joe Biden during their debate at CNN studios in Atlanta, Georgia, on June 27. Photo: AFP

Biden arrives at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware on Wednesday, en route to his home in Rehoboth Beach to self-isolate after testing positive for Covid-19. Photo: AP

Trump’s pick J.D. Vance takes stage protesting US jobs lost in China ‘sweetheart deal’

Donald Trump’s running mate Senator J.D. Vance stands on stage during the Republican National Convention in Wisconsin on July 17. Photo: AFP

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump with vice-presidential nominee Vance on Tuesday at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a day after Trump tapped Vance as his running mate. Photo: Reuters

Biden warns China’s Xi of ‘price’ over aid to Russia as Nato summit ends

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg delivers remarks at a press conference in Washington on Thursday. Photo: AP

European Council President Charles Michel on Thursday. Photo: AP

Finnish President Alexander Stubb. Photo: EPA-EFE

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Photo: Getty Images via AFP

Trump says Taiwan should pay US for defence: ‘they took about 100% of our chip business’

US presidential nominee Donald Trump arrives for the second day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Tuesday. Photo: Reuters

The logo of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) is seen at the opening of the chip maker’s global R&D centre in Hsinchu, Taiwan, last year. Photo: Reuters

A TSMC factory is seen under construction in Phoenix, Arizona, in 2022. Full-scale operations at the plant were planned to begin this year. Photo: Kyodo

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The Republican ticket for the US presidential election seems intent on shifting US foreign policy from Europe to Asia, analysts say


The Republican ticket for the US presidential election seems intent on shifting US foreign policy from Europe to Asia, analysts say.
