Clash or coexist? Defusing US-China tensions remains uncertain, even unlikely, analysts say
- ‘The concept of peaceful coexistence is very laudable as a long-term aspirational goal. But I think it’s a bridge too far in today’s environment,’ one expert concludes
Beijing promises not to take Taiwan by force. Washington vows not to work towards overthrowing the Chinese Communist Party.
These are among the difficult, perhaps politically impossible, steps that would be needed to avoid a US-China war and approximate some version of coexistence, according to former CIA, Pentagon and other strategic experts.
And many are convinced that conflict is more likely than not.
“The concept of peaceful coexistence is very laudable as a long-term aspirational goal. But I think it’s a bridge too far in today’s environment,” said Dennis Wilder, a foreign service professor at Georgetown University who oversaw the East Asia and Pacific desk in 2015 and 2016 for the Central Intelligence Agency.
“It is a strategic competition that we have to be careful does not intensify to the point that it ignites a new Cold War or World War III.”
A key problem, added Wilder, is that both countries pride themselves on being “hyper exceptional” stand-outs in human history – a view that does not engender humility or accommodation.
Where the US regards itself as a “city on the hill” that represents the best democracy ever, China considers itself the guardian of 5,000 years of history, a near perfect blend of Confucianism and Marxism, Wilder said. And while Beijing views the US as trying to contain China, Washington sees China as a hegemonic power intent on replacing it.
